Nice 3-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Ajaccio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Allianz Riviera plays host to Nice versus Ajaccio in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Friday 10 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nice have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nice have posted 4W 3D 3L at Allianz Riviera — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Allianz Riviera this season.
Ajaccio's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Nice. A 1.10 PPG lead over Ajaccio (2.10 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nice lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Nice winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Nice — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 45% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 45% versus Ajaccio 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Nice 45% | Ajaccio 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 2.26 xG and Ajaccio 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.137 / defence 0.776 | Ajaccio attack 0.783 / defence 1.410. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.313. Ajaccio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.410 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Nice's defence rating of 0.776 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 60 Nice games / 22 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 69% | Draw 21% | Ajaccio 10%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.45 | Draw 4.76 | Ajaccio 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Nice (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.06 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nice 40% | Ajaccio 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Friday 10 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 69% | Draw 21% | Ajaccio 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 51% | xG Nice 2.26 / Ajaccio 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.137 / def 0.776 | Ajaccio attack 0.783 / def 1.410 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Nice (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.26
Nice xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Ajaccio xG
51%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Ajaccio kick off?
Nice vs Ajaccio kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 10 February 2023 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Ajaccio?
Nice 3 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Nice vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Ajaccio part of?
Nice vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 69% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 10% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Nice and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Ajaccio?
Record (1 meetings): Nice 1W | Draws 0 | Ajaccio 0W.
What form are Nice and Ajaccio in?
Nice (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Ajaccio (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Nice's attack rating (1.14) and Ajaccio's defence rating (1.41), the model arrives at 2.26 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.78x) against Nice's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
69%
1.45
21%
4.75
10%
9.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.26
Nice xG
Total xG
3.06
0.80
Ajaccio xG
1.45
69%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
9.95
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
10%
9.60
Win to Nil
31%
3.22
1%
95.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.6 | 8.5 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.6 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.1 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Nice and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 2.26 expected goals for Nice and 0.80 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 60 outings, Nice have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 29W 14D 17L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 27W 12D 21L from 60 games, 1.55 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.68 PPG for Nice against 1.55 for Ajaccio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.69 PPG from 29 outings (14W 7D 8L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 12W 7D 10L from 29 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Nice are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.95 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio in 30%.
Defensively: Ajaccio in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 29W 14D 17L in their last 60 games (1.68 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 27W 12D 21L in their last 60 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Ajaccio away?
Nice's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.69 PPG; Ajaccio away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Nice or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Nice
0
Draws
0
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Ajaccio?
From 2 meetings on record, Nice have won 2, Ajaccio have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when Nice 3-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Ajaccio?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 45% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 48%, Ajaccio 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 45% for Nice and 24% for Ajaccio.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio in 45%; Nice have failed to score in 31% of games; Ajaccio in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Nice's recent matches and 31% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Nice's recent games and 24% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Ajaccio tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 45% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nice run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Ajaccio 3-0 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 2.26 xG and Ajaccio 0.80 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.14 / defence 0.78 against Ajaccio attack 0.78 / defence 1.41, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 69% | Draw 21% | Ajaccio 10%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 45%, Ajaccio 28%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.68 PPG, Ajaccio 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.