Montpellier 0-3 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Montpellier vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 plays host to Montpellier versus Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 27 October 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Montpellier have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 3.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Montpellier have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Montpellier are significantly better at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 than their overall form suggests.
Toulouse's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Toulouse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Toulouse's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.50 PPG for Montpellier against 0.90 for Toulouse. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Montpellier have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Toulouse in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Montpellier lead 2W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.8 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2024, ended 2–1 with Montpellier winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Montpellier half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Toulouse half-time and goal-timing data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 55% versus Toulouse 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 60% | Toulouse 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.25 xG and Toulouse 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.849 / defence 1.412 | Toulouse attack 0.874 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.403. Data: 42 Montpellier games / 42 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 25% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 46%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Toulouse 2.17. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.25 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.98 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 60% | Toulouse 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 25% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 62% | xG Montpellier 1.25 / Toulouse 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.849 / def 1.412 | Toulouse attack 0.874 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.403 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Toulouse xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Toulouse kick off?
Montpellier vs Toulouse kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Toulouse?
Montpellier 0 - 3 Toulouse.
Where is Montpellier vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Toulouse part of?
Montpellier vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 25% chance of winning, Toulouse a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Montpellier and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Toulouse?
Record (4 meetings): Montpellier 2W | Draws 0 | Toulouse 2W.
What form are Montpellier and Toulouse in?
Montpellier (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Toulouse (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.85x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Toulouse's attack (0.87x) against Montpellier's defence (1.41x) — and the away total comes out at 1.73.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
25%
4.04
30%
3.39
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.98
1.73
Toulouse xG
4.04
25%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
29%
3.50
Win to Nil
4%
22.82
13%
7.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.8 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.73 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 42 outings, Montpellier have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 11W 13D 18L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Toulouse's form line: 12W 13D 17L from 42 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D. The sample for Toulouse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.10 PPG for Montpellier against 1.17 for Toulouse. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Montpellier have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (4W 9D 7L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 8W 4D 8L from 20 away games — 1.40 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Montpellier are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.17 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Toulouse in 62%.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 12W 13D 17L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 1.05 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Montpellier won 3-0 on 29 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Montpellier have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Toulouse — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Montpellier
0
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Toulouse?
From 6 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 3, Toulouse have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2025, when Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 55%, Toulouse 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Montpellier) and 55% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Montpellier have failed to score in 30% of games; Toulouse in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Montpellier's games and 55% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Montpellier's recent games and 55% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Toulouse tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Toulouse run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Montpellier.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Montpellier 0-3 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 9, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.25 xG and Toulouse 1.73 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Montpellier fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Toulouse outscored their 1.73 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.85 / defence 1.41 against Toulouse attack 0.87 / defence 0.94, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 25% | Draw 30% | Toulouse 46%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 60%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 1.10 PPG, Toulouse 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.