Montpellier 0-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Montpellier at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Montpellier vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de la Mosson plays host to Montpellier versus Lyon in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 28 November 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Montpellier's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Montpellier, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Montpellier's home record at Stade de la Mosson: 4W 2D 1L from 7 Ligue 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Montpellier are significantly better at Stade de la Mosson than their overall form suggests.
Lyon (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon away from home this season: 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.67 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Montpellier, 1.70 for Lyon — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Montpellier goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Lyon goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Montpellier 54% and Lyon 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 38% | Lyon 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 1.93 xG and Lyon 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 1.059 / defence 1.065 | Lyon attack 0.845 / defence 1.467. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.199. Lyon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.467 — this is suppressing Montpellier's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 14 Montpellier games / 13 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 55% | Draw 26% | Lyon 19%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 1.82 | Draw 3.85 | Lyon 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Montpellier (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.01. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.01 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Montpellier as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.01 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 57% | Lyon 67% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 55% | Draw 26% | Lyon 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 58% | xG Montpellier 1.93 / Lyon 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 1.059 / def 1.065 | Lyon attack 0.845 / def 1.467 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Montpellier (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.93
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lyon xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Lyon kick off?
Montpellier vs Lyon kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 November 2021 at Stade de la Mosson.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Lyon?
Montpellier 0 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Montpellier vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson.
What competition is Montpellier vs Lyon part of?
Montpellier vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 55% chance of winning, Lyon a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Montpellier the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Montpellier and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Lyon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Montpellier and Lyon in?
Montpellier (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Montpellier's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Lyon's defensive record (1.47x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.93. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (0.84x) against Montpellier's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 14/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Montpellier Win
55%
1.81
26%
3.85
19%
5.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.93
Montpellier xG
Total xG
3.01
1.08
Lyon xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
5.30
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
15%
6.88
Win to Nil
19%
5.34
3%
36.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.93 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.08 for Lyon, a combined total of 3.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 13 outings, Montpellier have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 5W 4D 4L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Montpellier is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lyon's form line: 5W 4D 4L from 13 games, 1.46 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Montpellier against 1.46 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Montpellier have posted 2.33 PPG from 6 outings (4W 2D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Montpellier are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Lyon have gone 1W 1D 4L from 6 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.46 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Lyon's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Montpellier come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Montpellier are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.62 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lyon in 77%.
Last 13 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Lyon in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 games (1.46 PPG), while Lyon have gone 5W 4D 4L in their last 13 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Lyon away?
Montpellier's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 2.33 PPG; Lyon away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Montpellier or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Montpellier have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lyon in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lyon go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lyon won 5-2 on 23 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Montpellier have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Montpellier
0
Draws
7
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Lyon?
From 8 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 1, Lyon have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Montpellier 1-4 Lyon.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 50%, Lyon 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Montpellier) and 67% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Montpellier keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Montpellier's games and 67% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Montpellier's recent games and 67% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Montpellier and Lyon tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lyon in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lyon defy the odds to beat Montpellier 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Montpellier 0-1 at Stade de la Mosson, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 1.93 xG and Lyon 1.08 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Montpellier fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 1.06 / defence 1.06 against Lyon attack 0.84 / defence 1.47, drawn from 14/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 55% | Draw 26% | Lyon 19%, with Montpellier to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Lyon win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 38%, Lyon 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 1.46 PPG, Lyon 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Lyon (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.