Monaco 0-3 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Nice travel to Stade Louis II to take on Monaco. The game is scheduled for Sunday 26 February 2023, 16:05 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Monaco's home record at Stade Louis II: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Nice — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Monaco) versus 1.90 (Nice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Monaco, 0 for Nice and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with Monaco winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Monaco trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Nice trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 60% versus Nice 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 56% | Nice 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.55 xG and Nice 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.504 / defence 1.074 | Nice attack 1.060 / defence 0.694. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.235. Monaco carry an above-average attack strength of 1.504 — their λ of 1.55 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Nice's defence strength of 0.694 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 62 Monaco games / 62 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 39% | Draw 28% | Nice 33%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Nice 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.41) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 80% | Nice 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Feb 2023, 16:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 39% | Draw 28% | Nice 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG Monaco 1.55 / Nice 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.504 / def 1.074 | Nice attack 1.060 / def 0.694 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.235 • Poisson stance: Monaco (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Nice xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Nice kick off?
Monaco vs Nice kicked off at 16:05 on Sunday 26 February 2023 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Nice?
Monaco 0 - 3 Nice.
Where is Monaco vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Nice part of?
Monaco vs Nice is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 39% chance of winning, Nice a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Monaco and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Nice?
Record (3 meetings): Monaco 2W | Draws 1 | Nice 0W.
What form are Monaco and Nice in?
Monaco (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. Nice (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Monaco's attack rating (1.50) and Nice's defence rating (0.69), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
39%
2.54
28%
3.64
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.96
1.41
Nice xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
24%
4.08
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
7%
14.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.3 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.8 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Monaco and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Monaco and 1.41 for Nice, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monaco's recent record stands at 35W 14D 13L from 62 games, a 1.92 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 30W 15D 17L across 62 games — 1.69 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.92 PPG, Nice on 1.69. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 19W 6D 6L from 31 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 15W 7D 9L across 31 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.32 scored and 0.92 conceded. Monaco's scoring rate against Nice's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Nice in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Nice in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 35W 14D 13L in their last 62 games (1.92 PPG), while Nice have gone 30W 15D 17L in their last 62 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Nice away?
Monaco's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 2.03 PPG; Nice away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Monaco or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Nice in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monaco and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Nice won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Monaco
3
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 4, Nice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Nice 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Nice?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 61%, Nice 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Monaco) and 45% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Nice in 39%; Nice in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Monaco's recent matches and 42% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Monaco vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Monaco's recent games and 45% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Nice tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Nice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nice run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Monaco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Monaco 0-3 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.55 xG and Nice 1.41 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Monaco fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Nice outscored their 1.41 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.50 / defence 1.07 against Nice attack 1.06 / defence 0.69, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 39% | Draw 28% | Nice 33%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 56%, Nice 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.92 PPG, Nice 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nice (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.