Monaco 0-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Monaco at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Monaco vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees Nice travel to Stade Louis-II to take on Monaco. The game is scheduled for Friday 22 September 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monaco's home record at Stade Louis-II: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Nice — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Monaco) versus 1.90 (Nice). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Monaco, 1 for Nice and 1 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Feb 2023, ended 0–3 with Nice winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Monaco trading profile (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Nice trading profile (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 63% versus Nice 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 67% | Nice 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.70 xG and Nice 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.220 / defence 0.854 | Nice attack 1.161 / defence 0.930. League average goals — home 1.500 / away 1.260. Data: 43 Monaco games / 43 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 46% | Draw 28% | Nice 26%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Nice 3.85. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Monaco 40% | Nice 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Friday 22 Sep 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 46% | Draw 28% | Nice 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Monaco 1.70 / Nice 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.220 / def 0.854 | Nice attack 1.161 / def 0.930 | league avg home 1.500 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Monaco (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Nice xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Nice kick off?
Monaco vs Nice kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 22 September 2023 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Nice?
Monaco 0 - 1 Nice.
Where is Monaco vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Nice part of?
Monaco vs Nice is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 46% chance of winning, Nice a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Monaco and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Nice?
Record (4 meetings): Monaco 2W | Draws 1 | Nice 1W.
What form are Monaco and Nice in?
Monaco (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Nice (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Monaco's attack rating (1.22) and Nice's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 1.25 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.59
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.95
1.25
Nice xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.58
5%
20.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.1 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Monaco and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Monaco and 1.25 for Nice, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monaco's recent record stands at 22W 10D 11L from 43 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 10L across 43 games — 1.56 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Monaco on 1.77 PPG, Nice on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 11W 3D 7L from 21 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 9W 7D 5L across 21 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.98 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.28 scored and 0.95 conceded. Monaco's scoring rate against Nice's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Nice in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 22W 10D 11L in their last 43 games (1.77 PPG), while Nice have gone 17W 16D 10L in their last 43 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Nice away?
Monaco's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.71 PPG; Nice away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Monaco or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Nice in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monaco and Nice runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Nice won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Monaco
3
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Nice?
From 10 meetings on record, Monaco have won 4, Nice have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Nice 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Nice?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 62%, Nice 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Monaco) and 43% (Nice). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Nice?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Monaco's games and 62% of Nice's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Monaco's matches and 43% of Nice's.
Do Monaco and Nice tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Nice in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Nice defy the odds to beat Monaco 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Monaco 0-1 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.70 xG and Nice 1.25 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Monaco fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.22 / defence 0.85 against Nice attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 46% | Draw 28% | Nice 26%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Nice win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 67%, Nice 37%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Nice's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Monaco 1.77 PPG, Nice 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.