Monaco 4-0 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Louis-II plays host to Monaco versus Nantes in Ligue 1 (matchday 34). Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Current Form
Monaco's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Monaco at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.50 lags behind their overall 2.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Nantes (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Nantes's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Monaco's 2.30 PPG return is 1.50 points per game ahead of Nantes's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Monaco edge it 1 wins to 0, with 4 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 25 Aug 2023, ended Monaco 3–3 Nantes — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Monaco — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Nantes — key trading statistics (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 61% versus Nantes 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 62% | Nantes 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 1.19 xG and Nantes 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.079 / defence 0.801 | Nantes attack 0.763 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.392. Nantes bring a tight defence (rating 0.791, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Monaco's projected output down. Nantes's attack rating of 0.763 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Monaco's last 71 games and Nantes's last 71.
Result probabilities: Monaco 44% | Draw 30% | Nantes 26%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 2.29 | Draw 3.30 | Nantes 3.83. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Monaco at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monaco if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Monaco's last 10 home games and Nantes's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Monaco 50% (last 10 home games) | Nantes 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 44% | Draw 30% | Nantes 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Monaco 1.19 / Nantes 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.079 / def 0.801 | Nantes attack 0.763 / def 0.791 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Monaco (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Nantes xG
40%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monaco vs Nantes FAQs
What time does Monaco vs Nantes kick off?
Monaco vs Nantes kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Nantes?
Monaco 4 - 0 Nantes.
Where is Monaco vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Nantes part of?
Monaco vs Nantes is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 44% chance of winning, Nantes a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Monaco and Nantes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Monaco vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monaco's attack at 1.08x the league average against Nantes's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.76x) against Monaco's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Monaco's last 71 games and Nantes's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
44%
2.29
30%
3.30
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.04
0.85
Nantes xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
8%
12.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 11.1 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monaco vs Nantes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Monaco and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Monaco and 0.85 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Monaco come into this having played 71 games, going 38W 15D 18L for 1.82 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Nantes sit at 0.97 PPG from 71 outings (16W 21D 34L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-L across their last five.
Monaco carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Nantes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Monaco's home form reads 18W 6D 11L across their last 35 home games, a 1.71 PPG return.
Away from home, Nantes have taken 0.97 points per game from their last 35 away games (8W 10D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monaco are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.94 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
Monaco (Home) vs Nantes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monaco
Current Season
Nantes
Current Season
❓ Monaco vs Nantes Form FAQs
What form are Monaco and Nantes in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 38W 15D 18L in their last 71 games (1.82 PPG), while Nantes have gone 16W 21D 34L in their last 71 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Nantes away?
Monaco's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.71 PPG; Nantes away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 13 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Monaco have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won Monaco 7-1 Nantes on 15 Feb 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Monaco
5
Draws
0
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Monaco vs Nantes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Nantes?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Monaco have won 5, Nantes have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Nantes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 February 2026: Monaco 3-1 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Nantes?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Nantes see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 57%, Nantes 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Monaco) and 46% (Nantes).
On the defensive side: Nantes in 31%; Nantes in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monaco vs Nantes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monaco and Nantes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Monaco's recent matches and 49% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Monaco and Nantes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Monaco's recent games and 46% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monaco and Nantes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Monaco's recent matches and 54% of Nantes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monaco run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Nantes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Nantes 4-0 at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 1.19 xG and Nantes 0.85 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Monaco beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Nantes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.08 / defence 0.80 against Nantes attack 0.76 / defence 0.79, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 44% | Draw 30% | Nantes 26%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 62%, Nantes 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Nantes's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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