Monaco 3-2 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 76% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 21 sees Auxerre travel to Stade Louis II to take on Monaco. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 1 February 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Monaco — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Monaco have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Louis II — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre's form when playing away from home: 1W 1D 8L across 10 road games this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Monaco have the edge — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Monaco register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Auxerre in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Monaco, 0 for Auxerre and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2022, ended 3–2 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Monaco in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Auxerre in-play tendencies (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monaco 59% versus Auxerre 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monaco 55% | Auxerre 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 2.75 xG and Auxerre 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 1.466 / defence 1.020 | Auxerre attack 0.643 / defence 1.273. League average goals — home 1.474 / away 1.289. Monaco carry an above-average attack strength of 1.466 — their λ of 2.75 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.273 — this is suppressing Monaco's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Monaco games / 20 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monaco 76% | Draw 16% | Auxerre 8%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 1.32 | Draw 6.25 | Auxerre 12.50. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (76%) — a 68pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.59. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.59 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 76% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.59 combined xG gives a 70% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Monaco 80% | Auxerre 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stade Louis II • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 76% | Draw 16% | Auxerre 8% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 54% | xG Monaco 2.75 / Auxerre 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 1.466 / def 1.020 | Auxerre attack 0.643 / def 1.273 | league avg home 1.474 / away 1.289 • Poisson stance: Monaco (76%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.75
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Auxerre xG
54%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monaco vs Auxerre kick off?
Monaco vs Auxerre kicked off at 20:00 on Wednesday 1 February 2023 at Stade Louis II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Monaco 3 - 2 Auxerre.
Where is Monaco vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis II.
What competition is Monaco vs Auxerre part of?
Monaco vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 76% chance of winning, Auxerre a 8% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Monaco and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Monaco vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Auxerre?
Record (1 meetings): Monaco 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 0W.
What form are Monaco and Auxerre in?
Monaco (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Auxerre (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Monaco's attacking strength (1.47x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.75. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Monaco's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.4%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.5%), 2-1 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
76%
1.31
16%
6.28
8%
12.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.75
Monaco xG
Total xG
3.59
0.84
Auxerre xG
1.31
76%
Home win
6.28
16%
Draw
12.69
8%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
6%
15.64
Win to Nil
33%
3.06
1%
198.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.8 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Monaco and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.75 expected goals for Monaco and 0.84 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 76%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Monaco's recent record stands at 31W 14D 13L from 58 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 19L across 58 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Monaco by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Monaco have managed 17W 6D 6L from 29 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 10W 9D 10L across 29 trips, a 1.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monaco come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Monaco are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.28 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre in 60%.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monaco and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 31W 14D 13L in their last 58 games (1.84 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 22W 17D 19L in their last 58 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Auxerre away?
Monaco's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.97 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Monaco and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Monaco won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Monaco's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
5
Monaco
1
Draws
0
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Monaco have won 5, Auxerre have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Monaco 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Auxerre?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 59%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Monaco) and 52% (Auxerre). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 28% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Monaco keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Auxerre in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monaco play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Monaco's games and 62% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monaco vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Monaco's matches and 52% of Auxerre's.
Do Monaco and Auxerre tend to score early?
Monaco have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Monaco edge out Auxerre 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Auxerre 3-2 at Stade Louis II, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 2.75 xG and Auxerre 0.84 xG, a combined 3.59. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 1.47 / defence 1.02 against Auxerre attack 0.64 / defence 1.27, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 76% | Draw 16% | Auxerre 8%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 76%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 55%, Auxerre 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Monaco arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.43. Form held, and they took the win. Monaco (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.