Lyon 1-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lyon (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lyon face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lyon host Le Havre at Parc Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lyon stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lyon have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lyon at Parc Olympique Lyonnais this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Lyon are significantly better at Parc Olympique Lyonnais than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Le Havre have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Le Havre have posted 1W 4D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
On current form, Lyon have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Lyon, 1 for Le Havre and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Lyon trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Le Havre trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lyon 49% versus Le Havre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lyon 54% | Le Havre 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lyon 1.52 xG and Le Havre 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lyon attack 1.072 / defence 1.038 | Le Havre attack 0.931 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.469 / away 1.301. Data: 35 Lyon games / 35 Le Havre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lyon 42% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 30%. Fair-value odds: Lyon 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Le Havre 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lyon are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lyon offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lyon 50% | Le Havre 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lyon vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Parc Olympique Lyonnais • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lyon 42% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Lyon 1.52 / Le Havre 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Lyon attack 1.072 / def 1.038 | Le Havre attack 0.931 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.469 / away 1.301 • Poisson stance: Lyon (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Lyon xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Le Havre xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lyon vs Le Havre kick off?
Lyon vs Le Havre kicked off at 18:45 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What was the final score in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Lyon 1 - 1 Le Havre.
Where is Lyon vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Parc Olympique Lyonnais.
What competition is Lyon vs Le Havre part of?
Lyon vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Lyon a 42% chance of winning, Le Havre a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Lyon and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Lyon vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Le Havre?
Record (6 meetings): Lyon 3W | Draws 2 | Le Havre 1W.
What form are Lyon and Le Havre in?
Lyon (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Lyon's attack rating (1.07) and Le Havre's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.52 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Lyon's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
42%
2.39
28%
3.54
30%
3.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Lyon xG
Total xG
2.78
1.26
Le Havre xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.35
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
28%
3.51
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.39
7%
15.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.0 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lyon vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lyon and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Lyon and 1.26 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Lyon vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lyon's recent record stands at 19W 6D 10L from 35 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lyon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 7W 14D 14L across 35 games — 1.00 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lyon by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Lyon have managed 12W 1D 4L from 17 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 2W 6D 9L across 17 trips, a 0.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lyon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lyon are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.91 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lyon
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lyon and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Lyon have gone 19W 6D 10L in their last 35 games (1.80 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 14D 14L in their last 35 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lyon at home or Le Havre away?
Lyon's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lyon at home: 2.18 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.71 PPG.
Have Lyon or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lyon have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Le Havre in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Oct 2024, when Lyon won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lyon's record when hosting Le Havre specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Lyon
3
Draws
1
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lyon and Le Havre?
From 7 meetings on record, Lyon have won 3, Le Havre have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lyon and Le Havre last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Lyon 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Lyon and Le Havre?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lyon 47%, Le Havre 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lyon) and 24% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Lyon keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Le Havre in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lyon home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lyon play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Lyon's recent matches and 41% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lyon vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Lyon's recent games and 24% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lyon and Le Havre tend to score early?
Lyon have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon and Le Havre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Parc Olympique Lyonnais, Regular Season - 2, as Lyon and Le Havre drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lyon 1.52 xG and Le Havre 1.26 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lyon attack 1.07 / defence 1.04 against Le Havre attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lyon 42% | Draw 28% | Le Havre 30%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lyon 54%, Le Havre 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lyon's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Le Havre's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lyon arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.