Lille 1-1 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lille vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Toulouse at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lille — last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Lille at home: 9W 0D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Lille are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Across their last 10 games, Toulouse have recorded 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Lille are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Lille, 0 for Toulouse and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Mar 2023, ended Lille 2–0 Toulouse — a Lille win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Lille in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 59% versus Toulouse 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 47% | Toulouse 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lille surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Toulouse surrender HT leads in 38% of cases while Lille recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.50 xG and Toulouse 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 1.053 / defence 0.748 | Toulouse attack 0.859 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.030. Lille have a tight defence (rating 0.748), which is pulling Toulouse's projected output down. Data: built from Lille's last 49 games and Toulouse's last 49.
Result probabilities: Lille 55% | Draw 32% | Toulouse 14%. Fair-value odds: Lille 1.82 | Draw 3.17 | Toulouse 7.34. The model has a clear lean to Lille (55%) — a 23pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 40% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 60% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 32% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lille's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lille 50% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 12 November 2023 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 55% | Draw 32% | Toulouse 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 40% (No 60%) | xG Lille 1.50 / Toulouse 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 1.053 / def 0.748 | Toulouse attack 0.859 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Lille (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Lille xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Toulouse xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lille vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Lille vs Toulouse kick off?
Lille vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 12 November 2023 at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Toulouse?
Lille 1 - 1 Toulouse.
Where is Lille vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Toulouse part of?
Lille vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 12) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 55% chance of winning, Toulouse a 14% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Lille and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (60%).
Will Lille vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (1.05) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 0.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lille's last 49 games and Toulouse's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
55%
1.82
32%
3.17
14%
7.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Lille xG
Total xG
2.17
0.66
Toulouse xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
7.34
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
28%
3.54
3%
32.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 11.4 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lille vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Lille and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lille and 0.66 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Toulouse?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 49 games, going 24W 14D 11L for 1.76 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.20 PPG from 49 outings (15W 14D 20L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 17W 4D 3L across their last 24 home games, a 2.29 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.76 PPG overall — Lille are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.08 points per game from their last 24 away games (7W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.29 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Lille (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lille
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Lille vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Lille and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 24W 14D 11L in their last 49 games (1.76 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 15W 14D 20L in their last 49 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Toulouse away?
Lille's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 2.29 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Lille or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Toulouse in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lille have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won Toulouse 0-4 Lille.
Lille's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Lille
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Lille vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Toulouse?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Lille have won 7, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lille and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Toulouse 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Toulouse?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 62%, Toulouse 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Lille and 62% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Toulouse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lille vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lille and Toulouse matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Lille's games and 54% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lille and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Lille's matches and 62% of Toulouse's.
Do Lille and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 88% of Lille's recent matches and 67% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lille and Toulouse share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 12, as Lille and Toulouse drew 1-1 in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.50 xG and Toulouse 0.66 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 1.05 / defence 0.75 against Toulouse attack 0.86 / defence 1.04, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 55% | Draw 32% | Toulouse 14%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 47%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Toulouse's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Lille (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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