Lille 4-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Lille at 50%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Lille vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Auxerre at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lille stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lille haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lille's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Auxerre — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Auxerre haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 5W 5D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Auxerre — 1.00 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
Lille in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Auxerre in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lille 60% and Auxerre 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 53% | Auxerre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.64 xG and Auxerre 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.926 / defence 0.948 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.325. Data: 38 Lille games / 0 Auxerre games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lille 50% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 24%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.00 | Draw 4.00 | Auxerre 4.17. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lille as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lille offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Lille 50% | Auxerre 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 50% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Lille 1.64 / Auxerre 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.926 / def 0.948 | Auxerre attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.325 • Poisson stance: Lille (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Auxerre xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Auxerre kick off?
Lille vs Auxerre kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 August 2022 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What was the final score in Lille vs Auxerre?
Lille 4 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Lille vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Auxerre part of?
Lille vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 50% chance of winning, Auxerre a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lille and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Auxerre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lille and Auxerre in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lille (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.93) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.64 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
50%
1.99
25%
3.94
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Lille xG
Total xG
2.71
1.07
Auxerre xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.78
5%
21.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.7 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Lille and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Lille and 1.07 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille's recent record stands at 14W 13D 11L from 38 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. Lille haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 19W 13D 6L across 38 games — 1.84 PPG, with W-W-D-D-D in their last five. Auxerre haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lille on 1.45 PPG, Auxerre on 1.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Lille have managed 7W 8D 4L from 19 games — 1.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 9W 8D 2L across 19 trips, a 1.84 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.53 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lille have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Auxerre in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Pre-Season
Auxerre
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 14W 13D 11L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 19W 13D 6L in their last 38 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.53 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Lille or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Auxerre in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Aug 2022, when Lille won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Lille
2
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Lille have won 3, Auxerre have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Lille 0-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Auxerre?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 58%, Auxerre 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lille) and 42% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Auxerre in 32%; Lille have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Auxerre?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Lille's games and 63% of Auxerre's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Lille's recent games and 42% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Auxerre tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lille run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lille beat Auxerre 4-1 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Regular Season - 1, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lille 1.64 xG and Auxerre 1.07 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lille beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lille attack 0.93 / defence 0.95 against Auxerre attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lille 50% | Draw 25% | Auxerre 24%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lille 53%, Auxerre 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lille's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lille 1.45 PPG, Auxerre 1.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lille win broke the near-deadlock. Lille (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.