Le Havre 1-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Toulouse at 37% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Le Havre welcome Toulouse to Stade Océane in Ligue 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off is Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have gone 2W 2D 6L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Le Havre at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Le Havre are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Toulouse — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Le Havre, 1 for Toulouse and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 5 Nov 2023, ended Le Havre 2–1 Toulouse — a Le Havre win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Le Havre trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 40% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 36% | Toulouse 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Le Havre surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Toulouse surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Le Havre recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.23 xG and Toulouse 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.890 / defence 1.058 | Toulouse attack 1.030 / defence 1.063. League average goals — home 1.303 / away 1.209. Data: built from Le Havre's last 24 games and Toulouse's last 62.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 33% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 37%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.01 | Draw 3.39 | Toulouse 2.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Toulouse as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Le Havre 40% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 10 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 33% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Le Havre 1.23 / Toulouse 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.890 / def 1.058 | Toulouse attack 1.030 / def 1.063 | league avg home 1.303 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Toulouse xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Toulouse kick off?
Le Havre vs Toulouse kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 10 March 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Le Havre vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Toulouse part of?
Le Havre vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 33% chance of winning, Toulouse a 37% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Le Havre and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Le Havre vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.89) and Toulouse's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.23 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 24 games and Toulouse's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
33%
3.01
29%
3.39
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.55
1.32
Toulouse xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.39
29%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
9%
11.22
11%
9.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.3 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.32 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.60 PPG on a 25W 24D 13L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 20W 17D 25L from 62 games, 1.24 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.60 PPG, Toulouse on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.80 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 9D 6L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 10W 6D 14L from their last 30 away games — 1.20 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.26 scored and 1.44 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Toulouse
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 25W 24D 13L in their last 62 games (1.60 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 20W 17D 25L in their last 62 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Toulouse away?
Le Havre's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.80 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Toulouse in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 9 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 21 Feb 2022, when Toulouse won Toulouse 4-0 Le Havre.
Le Havre's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Le Havre
2
Draws
4
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 3, Toulouse have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Toulouse 3-2 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 37%, Toulouse 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Le Havre) and 60% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 33% of games; Toulouse in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Le Havre's recent matches and 53% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Le Havre's recent games and 60% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Le Havre's recent matches and 70% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Le Havre defy the odds to beat Toulouse 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Toulouse 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.23 xG and Toulouse 1.32 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Toulouse landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 1.06 against Toulouse attack 1.03 / defence 1.06, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 33% | Draw 29% | Toulouse 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Le Havre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 36%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Toulouse's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.60 PPG, Toulouse 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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