Le Havre 1-2 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stade Brestois 29 at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Le Havre host Stade Brestois 29 at Stade Océane in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Océane, Le Havre have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Stade Brestois 29 stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Stade Brestois 29 have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Stade Brestois 29 have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Le Havre at 1.60 PPG versus Stade Brestois 29's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 38% versus Stade Brestois 29 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 26% | Stade Brestois 29 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.25 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.857 / defence 1.150 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.928 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.547 / away 1.348. Data: 1 Le Havre games / 39 Stade Brestois 29 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 30% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 39%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Stade Brestois 29 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Stade Brestois 29 as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stade Brestois 29 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 1.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 30% | Stade Brestois 29 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Aug 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 30% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Le Havre 1.25 / Stade Brestois 29 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.857 / def 1.150 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.928 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.547 / away 1.348 • Poisson stance: Stade Brestois 29 (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Stade Brestois 29 xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Le Havre 1 - 2 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 30% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Stade Brestois 29 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 in?
Le Havre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Stade Brestois 29 (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.86x the league average against Stade Brestois 29's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Stade Brestois 29's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stade Brestois 29 Win
30%
3.29
30%
3.29
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.69
1.44
Stade Brestois 29 xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
7%
13.87
11%
8.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.8 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.44 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Le Havre come into this having played 39 games, going 20W 16D 3L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Stade Brestois 29 sit at 1.21 PPG from 39 outings (12W 11D 16L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Stade Brestois 29, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.74 PPG clear of Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Le Havre's home form reads 11W 7D 1L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Stade Brestois 29 have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Le Havre are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 0.54 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.21 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Stade Brestois 29 in 62%.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Stade Brestois 29
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 20W 16D 3L in their last 39 games (1.95 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 12W 11D 16L in their last 39 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Le Havre's home record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 2.11 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Le Havre's record when hosting Stade Brestois 29 specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
0
Draws
5
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Stade Brestois 29 have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Stade Brestois 29 2-0 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29?
Stade Brestois 29 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 32%, Stade Brestois 29 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 26% (Le Havre) and 53% (Stade Brestois 29).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 63% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 26% of games; Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Stade Brestois 29?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Le Havre's recent matches and 63% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 26% of Le Havre's recent games and 53% of Stade Brestois 29's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Stade Brestois 29 tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Stade Brestois 29 in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stade Brestois 29 edge out Le Havre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Le Havre 1-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 2, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.25 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.44 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 0.93 / defence 0.94, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 30% | Draw 30% | Stade Brestois 29 39%, with Stade Brestois 29 to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 26%, Stade Brestois 29 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Stade Brestois 29 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.