Le Havre 3-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Nice at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Nice encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Nice travel to Stade Océane to take on Le Havre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 16 December 2023, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Le Havre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Océane. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Nice — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.20 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Nice are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Le Havre's 20% rate and Nice's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
In-Play Profile
Le Havre in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time; they fail to score in 34% of games.
Nice in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 38% versus Nice 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 32% | Nice 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.65 xG and Nice 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.671 / defence 1.005 | Nice attack 0.905 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.037. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.65 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Nice's defence strength of 0.708 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Le Havre games / 53 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 22% | Draw 39% | Nice 39%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 4.55 | Draw 2.56 | Nice 2.56. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 31% | Total xG 1.59. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.59 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 69% — Le Havre's lower xG of 0.65 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 31%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 22% and away win at 39% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.59 combined xG gives a 21% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 31% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 20% | Nice 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 22% | Draw 39% | Nice 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 31% | xG Le Havre 0.65 / Nice 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.671 / def 1.005 | Nice attack 0.905 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.65
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Nice xG
31%
BTTS
49%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Nice kick off?
Le Havre vs Nice kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 16 December 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Nice?
Le Havre 3 - 1 Nice.
Where is Le Havre vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Nice part of?
Le Havre vs Nice is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 22% chance of winning, Nice a 39% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 31% probability that both Le Havre and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Le Havre and Nice in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Nice (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.67x the league average against Nice's defence at 0.71x — combine the two and it projects 0.65 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Nice's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (17.6%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 54% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
22%
4.52
39%
2.57
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
19.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.65
Le Havre xG
Total xG
1.59
0.94
Nice xG
4.52
22%
Home win
2.57
39%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
31%
BTTS Yes
3.20
69%
BTTS No
1.45
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
52%
1.91
Win to Nil
9%
11.62
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.3 | 19.2 | 9.1 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.0%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.65 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.94 for Nice, a combined total of 1.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.72 PPG on a 23W 22D 8L record — W-D-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Le Havre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Nice's form line: 24W 18D 11L from 53 games, 1.70 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Le Havre on 1.72 PPG, Nice on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.85 PPG from 26 outings (13W 9D 4L).
On the road, Nice have gone 12W 8D 6L from 26 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.68 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.21 scored and 0.81 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their games; Nice in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Nice
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Nice in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 23W 22D 8L in their last 53 games (1.72 PPG), while Nice have gone 24W 18D 11L in their last 53 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Nice away?
Le Havre's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.85 PPG; Nice away: 1.69 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 51% of their recent games, Nice in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Nice runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre's record when hosting Nice specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Le Havre
1
Draws
3
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Nice?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 2, Nice have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Nice 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 31%, Nice 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Le Havre and 35% for Nice.
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Nice in 35%; Le Havre have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Le Havre's recent matches and 50% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Le Havre's recent games and 35% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Nice tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Nice in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Nice.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Nice 3-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 0.65 xG and Nice 0.94 xG, a combined 1.59. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.67 / defence 1.00 against Nice attack 0.91 / defence 0.71, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 22% | Draw 39% | Nice 39%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a Le Havre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 49% and landed. Over 3.5 was 8% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 31% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 32%, Nice 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Nice's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.72 PPG, Nice 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Le Havre win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Nice (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.