Estac Troyes vs Le Havre – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Estac Troyes vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Le Havre travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Estac Troyes have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Estac Troyes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade de l'Aube, Estac Troyes have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Estac Troyes are significantly better at Stade de l'Aube than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Le Havre stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Estac Troyes 1.00 PPG, Le Havre 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Le Havre in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 50% versus Le Havre 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | Le Havre 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.03 xG and Le Havre 1.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.662 / defence 1.600 | Le Havre attack 0.904 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.304. Estac Troyes's attack strength of 0.662 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 7 Estac Troyes games / 40 Le Havre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 20% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 57%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | Le Havre 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Estac Troyes 50% | Le Havre 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 20% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Estac Troyes 1.03 / Le Havre 1.89 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.662 / def 1.600 | Le Havre attack 0.904 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.89
Le Havre xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Estac Troyes vs Le Havre kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 19:45 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Stade de l'Aube.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Le Havre part of?
Estac Troyes vs Le Havre is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 20% chance of winning, Le Havre a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Estac Troyes and Le Havre will score (BTTS).
Will Estac Troyes vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Le Havre?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Estac Troyes and Le Havre in?
Estac Troyes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Le Havre (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Estac Troyes's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Le Havre's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Le Havre's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
20%
4.99
23%
4.36
57%
1.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.92
1.89
Le Havre xG
4.99
20%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.75
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
15%
6.59
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
3%
32.88
20%
4.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 10.2 | 9.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.89 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Le Havre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, Estac Troyes have picked up 1.70 PPG on a 20W 8D 12L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Estac Troyes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Le Havre's form line: 7W 16D 17L from 40 games, 0.92 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Estac Troyes are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Estac Troyes have posted 2.05 PPG from 20 outings (13W 2D 5L).
On the road, Le Havre have gone 2W 7D 11L from 20 away games — 0.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.90 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Le Havre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Estac Troyes and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 20W 8D 12L in their last 40 games (1.70 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 17L in their last 40 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Le Havre away?
Estac Troyes's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 2.05 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Le Havre in 22%.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 55%, Le Havre 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Estac Troyes) and 25% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Le Havre in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Estac Troyes play Le Havre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 45% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Estac Troyes vs Le Havre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 25% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Le Havre tend to score early?
Estac Troyes have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Le Havre in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.