Clermont Foot 1-5 Marseille – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Clermont Foot take on Marseille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Marseille make the trip to Stade Gabriel-Montpied to face Clermont Foot in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 March 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Clermont Foot (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel-Montpied: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Marseille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Marseille, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Marseille have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Marseille arrive in superior form — a 0.90 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H History
Across the last 5 meetings, Marseille have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Clermont Foot's 1, with 0 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 5 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Marseille winning.
It is worth noting that Marseille have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Clermont Foot — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Marseille — key trading statistics (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Marseille 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Marseille 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.02 xG and Marseille 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.754 / defence 1.060 | Marseille attack 0.876 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.120. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.02 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Clermont Foot games / 61 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 35% | Marseille 33%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | Marseille 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 30% | Marseille 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 35% | Marseille 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 44% | xG Clermont Foot 1.02 / Marseille 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.754 / def 1.060 | Marseille attack 0.876 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.120 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Marseille xG
44%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Marseille kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Marseille kicked off at 20:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Clermont Foot 1 - 5 Marseille.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Marseille part of?
Clermont Foot vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 32% chance of winning, Marseille a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Clermont Foot and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Marseille?
Record (5 meetings): Clermont Foot 1W | Draws 0 | Marseille 4W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Marseille in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Marseille (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Clermont Foot's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Marseille's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (0.88x) against Clermont Foot's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.14
35%
2.85
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.06
1.04
Marseille xG
3.14
32%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
11%
8.87
12%
8.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 13.3 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 13.5 | 7.0 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.04 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot come into this having played 61 games, going 20W 16D 25L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Marseille sit at 1.74 PPG from 61 outings (30W 16D 15L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Marseille is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Marseille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Clermont Foot's home form reads 10W 7D 13L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Marseille have taken 1.53 points per game from 30 outings (13W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.64 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Blended
Marseille
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Marseille in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 20W 16D 25L in their last 61 games (1.25 PPG), while Marseille have gone 30W 16D 15L in their last 61 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Marseille away?
Marseille's away record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 1.23 PPG; Marseille away: 1.53 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Marseille have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Marseille won 1-5 on 2 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Marseille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
5
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Marseille?
From 6 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Marseille have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Clermont Foot 1-5 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 43%, Marseille 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Clermont Foot) and 47% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 40% of games; Marseille in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 50% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 47% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Marseille tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Marseille in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Marseille run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Clermont Foot 1-5 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.02 xG and Marseille 1.04 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Marseille outscored their 1.04 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Marseille attack 0.88 / defence 1.00, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 32% | Draw 35% | Marseille 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The actual Marseille win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 48%, Marseille 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Marseille's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Marseille arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.25. That form edge translated into the three points. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Marseille (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.