Auxerre 1-0 Strasbourg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Strasbourg at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Strasbourg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Strasbourg at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 27 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Strasbourg — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Strasbourg have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Strasbourg have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Auxerre) versus 1.30 (Strasbourg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Auxerre in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Strasbourg in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 66% versus Strasbourg 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 54% | Strasbourg 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.31 xG and Strasbourg 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.934 / defence 1.201 | Strasbourg attack 0.849 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.548 / away 1.557. Data: 3 Auxerre games / 41 Strasbourg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 30% | Draw 28% | Strasbourg 42%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Strasbourg 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.31 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Strasbourg at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Strasbourg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 60% | Strasbourg 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Strasbourg | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 30% | Draw 28% | Strasbourg 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 60% | xG Auxerre 1.31 / Strasbourg 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.934 / def 1.201 | Strasbourg attack 0.849 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.548 / away 1.557 • Poisson stance: Strasbourg (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Strasbourg xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Strasbourg kick off?
Auxerre vs Strasbourg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Auxerre 1 - 0 Strasbourg.
Where is Auxerre vs Strasbourg being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Strasbourg part of?
Auxerre vs Strasbourg is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 30% chance of winning, Strasbourg a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Strasbourg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Auxerre and Strasbourg will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Strasbourg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Auxerre and Strasbourg in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Strasbourg (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.93) and Strasbourg's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Strasbourg's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Strasbourg Win
30%
3.33
28%
3.59
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.90
1.59
Strasbourg xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
6%
16.29
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.5 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Strasbourg expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.59 for Strasbourg, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Strasbourg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre's recent record stands at 20W 14D 7L from 41 games, a 1.80 PPG return, with D-D-L-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Strasbourg, meanwhile, have gone 17W 14D 10L across 41 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-L-L-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Strasbourg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.80 PPG, Strasbourg on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 10W 6D 4L from 20 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Strasbourg's away record stands at 6W 8D 6L across 20 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Strasbourg are on 1.54 scored and 1.15 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Strasbourg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Strasbourg in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 20W 14D 7L in their last 41 games (1.80 PPG), while Strasbourg have gone 17W 14D 10L in their last 41 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Strasbourg away?
Auxerre's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.80 PPG; Strasbourg away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Strasbourg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Strasbourg in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2025, when Strasbourg won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Strasbourg specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
1
Draws
4
Strasbourg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Strasbourg have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Strasbourg last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Strasbourg.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Strasbourg?
Strasbourg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 55% of the time.
Strasbourg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 65%, Strasbourg 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Auxerre) and 35% (Strasbourg).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Strasbourg in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Strasbourg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Strasbourg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Auxerre's games and 50% of Strasbourg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Strasbourg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Auxerre's recent games and 35% of Strasbourg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Strasbourg tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Strasbourg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Strasbourg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Strasbourg 1-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.31 xG and Strasbourg 1.59 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Strasbourg landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.93 / defence 1.20 against Strasbourg attack 0.85 / defence 0.91, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 30% | Draw 28% | Strasbourg 42%, with Strasbourg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Auxerre win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 54%, Strasbourg 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Strasbourg's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.80 PPG, Strasbourg 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line. Strasbourg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.