Auxerre vs Marseille – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Marseille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Auxerre host Marseille at in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 November 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Auxerre — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , Auxerre have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Marseille have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Marseille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Marseille have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Auxerre at 1.50 PPG versus Marseille's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Auxerre, 4 for Marseille and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Marseille winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Auxerre trading profile (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Marseille trading profile (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 44% versus Marseille 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 47% | Marseille 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.49 xG and Marseille 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.913 / defence 1.130 | Marseille attack 0.801 / defence 1.073. League average goals — home 1.516 / away 1.336. Data: 36 Auxerre games / 36 Marseille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 41% | Draw 30% | Marseille 29%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Marseille 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Auxerre as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Auxerre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 40% | Marseille 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 41% | Draw 30% | Marseille 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Auxerre 1.49 / Marseille 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.913 / def 1.130 | Marseille attack 0.801 / def 1.073 | league avg home 1.516 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Marseille xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Marseille kick off?
Auxerre vs Marseille is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 28 November 2026.
What competition is Auxerre vs Marseille part of?
Auxerre vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 41% chance of winning, Marseille a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Auxerre and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Marseille?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 0 | Marseille 4W.
What form are Auxerre and Marseille in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Marseille (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Auxerre's attack rating (0.91) and Marseille's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Marseille's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.34
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.70
1.21
Marseille xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
30%
3.35
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
12%
8.10
6%
15.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.1 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.21 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Auxerre have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 8W 10D 18L record — W-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Marseille's form line: 19W 5D 12L from 36 games, 1.72 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Marseille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Marseille are the form team by 0.78 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Auxerre.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Auxerre have posted 1.22 PPG from 18 outings (6W 4D 8L).
On the road, Marseille have gone 7W 1D 10L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.72 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Marseille's season.
The Goals Picture
Auxerre are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.86 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Marseille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Marseille in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 8W 10D 18L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Marseille have gone 19W 5D 12L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Marseille away?
Auxerre's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.22 PPG; Marseille away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Auxerre and Marseille runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Marseille go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2025, when Auxerre won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Marseille specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
0
Draws
4
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Marseille?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Marseille have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Marseille 1-0 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 39%, Marseille 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 50% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 44% of games; Marseille in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Auxerre's recent matches and 33% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 50% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Marseille tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Marseille in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.