Auxerre 2-1 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lyon at 66% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Lyon encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lyon make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Friday 17 February 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lyon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lyon away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lyon are 1.20 PPG clear of Auxerre in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.50 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Auxerre 0W, Lyon 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Lyon winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Auxerre 61% and Lyon 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Lyon 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 0.74 xG and Lyon 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.585 / defence 1.371 | Lyon attack 1.203 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.248. Auxerre's attack strength of 0.585 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lyon have an above-average attack strength of 1.203 — the away xG of 2.06 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 23 Auxerre games / 61 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 11% | Draw 23% | Lyon 66%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 9.09 | Draw 4.35 | Lyon 1.52. The model has a clear lean to Lyon (66%) — a 55pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lyon at 66% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Auxerre 40% | Lyon 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Friday 17 Feb 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 11% | Draw 23% | Lyon 66% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 47% | xG Auxerre 0.74 / Lyon 2.06 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.585 / def 1.371 | Lyon attack 1.203 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.248 • Poisson stance: Lyon (66%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
2.06
Lyon xG
47%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lyon kick off?
Auxerre vs Lyon kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 17 February 2023 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Lyon?
Auxerre 2 - 1 Lyon.
Where is Auxerre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lyon part of?
Auxerre vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 11% chance of winning, Lyon a 66% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lyon the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Auxerre and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lyon?
Record (1 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Lyon 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Lyon in?
Auxerre (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Lyon (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.58x the league average against Lyon's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (1.20x) against Auxerre's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 2.06.
These ratings are built from 23/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lyon Win
11%
9.40
23%
4.33
66%
1.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.80
2.06
Lyon xG
9.40
11%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.51
66%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
13%
7.82
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
1%
73.52
32%
3.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Auxerre and 2.06 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lyon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 19D 20L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-D. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.59 PPG from 61 outings (27W 16D 18L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lyon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Auxerre against 1.59 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 12W 9D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (10W 8D 12L).
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.66 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Auxerre have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Lyon in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Lyon
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 22W 19D 20L in their last 61 games (1.39 PPG), while Lyon have gone 27W 16D 18L in their last 61 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lyon away?
Auxerre's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.50 PPG; Lyon away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
3
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lyon?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Lyon have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Lyon 3-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 57%, Lyon 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Auxerre) and 53% (Lyon).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lyon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Auxerre's games and 60% of Lyon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Auxerre's recent games and 53% of Lyon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Lyon tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lyon in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Auxerre defy the odds to beat Lyon 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Lyon 2-1 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 0.74 xG and Lyon 2.06 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lyon landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.58 / defence 1.37 against Lyon attack 1.20 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 11% | Draw 23% | Lyon 66%, with Lyon to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a Auxerre win, an outcome the model had rated at just 11% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Lyon 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Lyon's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.39 PPG, Lyon 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Auxerre win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.