Angers 1-4 Nantes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Angers at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Nantes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Nantes make the trip to Stade Raymond-Kopa to face Angers in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 September 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Angers's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 5 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Angers have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nantes have collected 0.80 PPG across 5 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 3L. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 5 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Nantes have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form ledger tips toward Angers. A 1.40 PPG lead over Nantes (2.20 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading & In-Play
Angers — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Nantes — key trading statistics (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Angers 40% | Nantes 20%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Angers 20% | Nantes 0%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.65 xG and Nantes 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.204 / defence 0.886 | Nantes attack 0.675 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.178 / away 1.412. Data: 5 Angers games / 5 Nantes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 53% | Draw 31% | Nantes 16%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Nantes 6.25. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Angers are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Angers if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Angers 40% | Nantes 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Nantes | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 53% | Draw 31% | Nantes 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Angers 1.65 / Nantes 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.204 / def 0.886 | Nantes attack 0.675 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.178 / away 1.412 • Poisson stance: Angers (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Nantes xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Nantes kick off?
Angers vs Nantes kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Nantes?
Angers 1 - 4 Nantes.
Where is Angers vs Nantes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Nantes part of?
Angers vs Nantes is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Nantes?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 53% chance of winning, Nantes a 16% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Nantes?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Angers and Nantes will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Nantes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nantes?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Angers and Nantes in?
Angers (all comps): 3W-2D-0L in 5 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Nantes (all comps): 1W-1D-3L in 5 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Angers's attack rating (1.20) and Nantes's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Nantes's attack (0.68x) against Angers's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
53%
1.89
31%
3.18
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Angers xG
Total xG
2.49
0.84
Nantes xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.18
31%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
23%
4.40
3%
32.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Nantes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Angers and Nantes expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Angers and 0.84 for Nantes, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Nantes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers's recent record stands at 3W 2D 0L from 5 games, a 2.20 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Angers, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nantes, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 3L across 5 games — 0.80 PPG, with D-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nantes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Angers by 1.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Nantes heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game recently; Nantes are on 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Angers's scoring rate against Nantes's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Nantes in 20%.
Defensively: Angers have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Early Season
Nantes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Nantes in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 3W 2D 0L in their last 5 games (2.20 PPG), while Nantes have gone 1W 1D 3L in their last 5 (0.80 PPG).
Have Angers or Nantes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 60% of their recent games, Nantes in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Angers have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Nantes won 1-4 on 19 Sep 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Nantes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Angers
3
Draws
2
Nantes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Nantes?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 3, Nantes have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Nantes last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Nantes 0-1 Angers.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Nantes?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 40% (Angers) and 20% (Nantes) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Angers and 0% for Nantes.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Nantes in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Nantes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Nantes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Angers's recent matches and 20% of Nantes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Nantes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Angers's recent games and 0% of Nantes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Nantes tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Nantes in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nantes run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Angers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nantes beat Angers 1-4 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 6, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.65 xG and Nantes 0.84 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Nantes outscored their 0.84 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.20 / defence 0.89 against Nantes attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 53% | Draw 31% | Nantes 16%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Nantes win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 10% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 20%, Nantes 0%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Nantes's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Angers arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Nantes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Angers managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nantes scored 4 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.