Angers 1-1 Lille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lille at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Angers vs Lille encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Raymond-Kopa plays host to Angers versus Lille in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off: Sunday 10 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Angers's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Angers's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Stade Raymond-Kopa this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Lille have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Lille have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, Lille are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Angers 0W, Lille 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Angers half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Lille half-time and goal-timing data (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 57% versus Lille 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 47% | Lille 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 0.73 xG and Lille 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 0.693 / defence 1.162 | Lille attack 0.833 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.194. Angers's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 30 Angers games / 30 Lille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Angers 23% | Draw 31% | Lille 46%. Fair-value odds: Angers 4.35 | Draw 3.23 | Lille 2.17. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lille at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Angers 40% | Lille 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Raymond-Kopa • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 23% | Draw 31% | Lille 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Angers 0.73 / Lille 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 0.693 / def 1.162 | Lille attack 0.833 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Lille (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Angers xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Lille xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Angers vs Lille kick off?
Angers vs Lille kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Lille?
Angers 1 - 1 Lille.
Where is Angers vs Lille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond-Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Lille part of?
Angers vs Lille is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 23% chance of winning, Lille a 46% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Angers and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Angers vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lille?
Record (1 meetings): Angers 0W | Draws 1 | Lille 0W.
What form are Angers and Lille in?
Angers (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Angers's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.73. Flip it around — Lille's attack (0.83x) against Angers's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
23%
4.34
31%
3.21
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Angers xG
Total xG
1.88
1.16
Lille xG
4.34
23%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
31%
3.18
48%
2.07
Win to Nil
7%
13.79
22%
4.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.2 | 17.6 | 10.1 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Angers and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Angers and 1.16 for Lille, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Angers come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 8D 14L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-L.
On the other side, Lille sit at 1.57 PPG from 30 outings (12W 11D 7L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Angers — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Angers's home form reads 6W 1D 8L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Lille have taken 1.47 points per game from 15 outings (6W 4D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Angers are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.27 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 30 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Lille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Angers and Lille in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 8W 8D 14L in their last 30 games (1.07 PPG), while Lille have gone 12W 11D 7L in their last 30 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.27 PPG; Lille away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Angers or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Angers have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Lille in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Lille go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Angers have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Angers
2
Draws
5
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Lille?
From 8 meetings on record, Angers have won 1, Lille have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Angers and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Angers 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 40%, Lille 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Angers) and 47% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Angers have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Angers play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Angers's recent matches and 60% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Angers vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Angers's recent games and 47% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Angers and Lille tend to score early?
Angers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lille in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Angers and Lille share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers and Lille finished level at 1-1 at Stade Raymond-Kopa, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 0.73 xG and Lille 1.16 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 0.69 / defence 1.16 against Lille attack 0.83 / defence 0.92, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 23% | Draw 31% | Lille 46%, with Lille to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 47%, Lille 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Lille's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lille arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.