Ajaccio 0-1 Nice – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nice at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ajaccio vs Nice fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ajaccio and Nice meet at Stade François Coty in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 11 September 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ajaccio have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ajaccio have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ajaccio's home record at Stade François Coty: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Ajaccio are significantly better at Stade François Coty than their overall form suggests.
Nice's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Nice have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nice's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Ajaccio, 1.40 for Nice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Ajaccio half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 41% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Nice half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ajaccio 25% | Nice 41%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ajaccio 23% | Nice 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 0.74 xG and Nice 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.588 / defence 1.041 | Nice attack 0.801 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.496. Ajaccio's attack strength of 0.588 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 6 Ajaccio games / 44 Nice games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 20% | Draw 33% | Nice 47%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 5.00 | Draw 3.03 | Nice 2.13. Nice hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Nice as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nice if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ajaccio 50% | Nice 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Nice | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 20% | Draw 33% | Nice 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Ajaccio 0.74 / Nice 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.588 / def 1.041 | Nice attack 0.801 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.486 / away 1.496 • Poisson stance: Nice (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Nice xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ajaccio vs Nice kick off?
Ajaccio vs Nice kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Nice?
Ajaccio 0 - 1 Nice.
Where is Ajaccio vs Nice being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Nice part of?
Ajaccio vs Nice is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Nice?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 20% chance of winning, Nice a 47% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Nice?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ajaccio and Nice will score (BTTS).
Will Ajaccio vs Nice have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Nice?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ajaccio and Nice in?
Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Nice (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.59x the league average against Nice's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Nice's attack (0.80x) against Ajaccio's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
20%
4.88
33%
3.08
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
1.98
1.25
Nice xG
4.88
20%
Home win
3.08
33%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
6%
16.99
23%
4.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.8 | 17.2 | 10.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Nice?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Nice expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Ajaccio and 1.25 for Nice, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Nice?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ajaccio's recent record stands at 22W 10D 12L from 44 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ajaccio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Nice, meanwhile, have gone 21W 9D 14L across 44 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-L-L-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Nice, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Ajaccio against 1.64 for Nice. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ajaccio have managed 13W 4D 5L from 22 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Nice's away record stands at 11W 4D 7L across 22 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ajaccio are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 0.66 conceded per game recently; Nice are on 1.27 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Ajaccio have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Early Season
Nice
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ajaccio and Nice in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 22W 10D 12L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Nice have gone 21W 9D 14L in their last 44 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Nice away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.95 PPG; Nice away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Ajaccio or Nice been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ajaccio have kept a clean sheet in 55% of their recent games, Nice in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Ajaccio
0
Draws
2
Nice
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Nice?
From 2 meetings on record, Ajaccio have won 0, Nice have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Nice last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2023, when Nice 3-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Nice?
Nice have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 41% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 27% (Ajaccio) and 32% (Nice) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Ajaccio) and 46% (Nice).
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Nice in 41%; Ajaccio have failed to score in 36% of games; Nice in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Nice away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ajaccio play Nice?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 32% of Nice's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ajaccio vs Nice usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Ajaccio's recent games and 46% of Nice's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ajaccio and Nice tend to score early?
Ajaccio have had a goal before half-time in 41% of their recent matches, Nice in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Nice edge out Ajaccio 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice beat Ajaccio 0-1 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 7, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 0.74 xG and Nice 1.25 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.59 / defence 1.04 against Nice attack 0.80 / defence 0.84, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 20% | Draw 33% | Nice 47%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 23%, Nice 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Nice's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 1.73 PPG, Nice 1.64 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nice win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Nice (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.