VPS 4-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours VPS (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as VPS face Mariehamn.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Veikkausliiga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Mariehamn travel to Lemonsoft Stadion to take on VPS. The game is scheduled for Saturday 4 July 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, VPS have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Lemonsoft Stadion, VPS have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mariehamn stand at 0W 2D 8L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
VPS are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 1.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. VPS register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Mariehamn in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: VPS have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 9 past contests while Mariehamn have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 1–0 with VPS winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both VPS and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
VPS trading profile (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Mariehamn trading profile (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — VPS 65% and Mariehamn 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (VPS 50% | Mariehamn 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 2.14 xG and Mariehamn 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 1.245 / defence 0.887 | Mariehamn attack 0.674 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.491 / away 1.212. Data: 35 VPS games / 35 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: VPS 69% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 10%. Fair-value odds: VPS 1.45 | Draw 4.55 | Mariehamn 10.00. The model has a clear lean to VPS (69%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is VPS at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.87 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: VPS 80% | Mariehamn 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Lemonsoft Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jul 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 69% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 47% | xG VPS 2.14 / Mariehamn 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 1.245 / def 0.887 | Mariehamn attack 0.674 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.491 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: VPS (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.14
VPS xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Mariehamn xG
47%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs Mariehamn kick off?
VPS vs Mariehamn kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 4 July 2026 at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
VPS 4 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is VPS vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Lemonsoft Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs Mariehamn part of?
VPS vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 69% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 10% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both VPS and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Mariehamn?
Record (9 meetings): VPS 5W | Draws 3 | Mariehamn 1W.
What form are VPS and Mariehamn in?
VPS (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-W-D. Mariehamn (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
VPS's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against Mariehamn's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.14. The same calculation in reverse, Mariehamn's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 1-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
69%
1.46
22%
4.61
10%
10.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.14
VPS xG
Total xG
2.87
0.72
Mariehamn xG
1.46
69%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
10.22
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
12%
8.52
Win to Nil
33%
3.01
1%
87.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.0 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.3 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are VPS and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 2.14 expected goals for VPS and 0.72 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs Mariehamn?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
VPS's recent record stands at 13W 13D 14L from 40 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 8W 12D 20L across 40 games — 0.90 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours VPS by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, VPS have managed 7W 7D 5L from 19 games — 1.47 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 3W 6D 10L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, VPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
VPS are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.00 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: VPS have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 40 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are VPS and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
VPS have gone 13W 13D 14L in their last 40 games (1.30 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 8W 12D 20L in their last 40 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — VPS at home or Mariehamn away?
VPS's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — VPS at home: 1.47 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between VPS and Mariehamn runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
VPS have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jun 2025, when VPS won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting Mariehamn specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
VPS
3
Draws
1
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 6, Mariehamn have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did VPS and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when VPS 4-0 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between VPS and Mariehamn?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — VPS 63%, Mariehamn 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (VPS) and 47% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: VPS have failed to score in 26% of games; Mariehamn in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when VPS play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of VPS's games and 58% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is VPS vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of VPS's recent games and 47% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do VPS and Mariehamn tend to score early?
VPS have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant VPS run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat Mariehamn 4-0 at Lemonsoft Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 2.14 xG and Mariehamn 0.72 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 1.25 / defence 0.89 against Mariehamn attack 0.67 / defence 1.15, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 69% | Draw 22% | Mariehamn 10%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (VPS 50%, Mariehamn 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
VPS's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Mariehamn's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, VPS arrived the stronger side — 1.30 PPG against 0.90. Form held, and they took the win. VPS (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.