VPS 2-2 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates VPS at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this VPS vs AC Oulu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
VPS host AC Oulu at Elisa Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 April 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
AC Oulu — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
AC Oulu's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects VPS 1.12 xG and AC Oulu 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: VPS attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | AC Oulu attack 0.973 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 0.937. Data: 0 VPS games / 22 AC Oulu games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: VPS 37% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 34%. Fair-value odds: VPS 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | AC Oulu 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on VPS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: VPS vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Elisa Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Apr 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: VPS 37% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG VPS 1.12 / AC Oulu 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: VPS attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | AC Oulu attack 0.973 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.241 / away 0.937 • Poisson stance: VPS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
VPS xG
Expected Goals
1.05
AC Oulu xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does VPS vs AC Oulu kick off?
VPS vs AC Oulu kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 April 2022 at Elisa Stadion.
What was the final score in VPS vs AC Oulu?
VPS 2 - 2 AC Oulu.
Where is VPS vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Elisa Stadion.
What competition is VPS vs AC Oulu part of?
VPS vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win VPS vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives VPS a 37% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in VPS vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both VPS and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will VPS vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are VPS and AC Oulu in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. AC Oulu away split: 0.60 PPG from 10 | GF 0.60 / GA 1.90 | CS 4.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from VPS's attack rating (0.85) and AC Oulu's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AC Oulu's attack versus VPS's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 0/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
37%
2.70
29%
3.40
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
VPS xG
Total xG
2.17
1.05
AC Oulu xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
13%
7.70
11%
9.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for VPS vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are VPS and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for VPS and 1.05 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for VPS vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
VPS
Pre-Season
AC Oulu
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Jun 2026, when VPS won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
VPS's record when hosting AC Oulu specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
VPS
1
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between VPS and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, VPS have won 5, AC Oulu have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did VPS and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when VPS 5-1 AC Oulu.
Who has won more matches between VPS and AC Oulu?
VPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = VPS home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
VPS and AC Oulu share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Elisa Stadion, Regular Season - 1, as VPS and AC Oulu drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting VPS 1.12 xG and AC Oulu 1.05 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. VPS beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AC Oulu outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of VPS attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against AC Oulu attack 0.97 / defence 1.06, drawn from 0/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it VPS 37% | Draw 29% | AC Oulu 34%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.