SJK 1-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 44%, yet in-form Ilves provide a compelling counter-argument — this SJK vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to OmaSP Stadion to face SJK in Veikkausliiga (matchday 3). The match kicks off on Friday 19 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
SJK (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
SJK's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Ilves's record over their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Ilves's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ilves are 0.80 PPG clear of SJK over their recent games (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 54% versus Ilves 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 48% | Ilves 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SJK surrender their half-time lead 26% of the time, while Ilves have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.79 xG and Ilves 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 0.990 / defence 0.914 | Ilves attack 0.969 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.889 / away 1.585. Data: built from SJK's last 24 games and Ilves's last 24. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SJK 44% | Draw 29% | Ilves 27%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.29 | Draw 3.43 | Ilves 3.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.40) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SJK at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ilves (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SJK's last 10 home games and Ilves's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SJK 80% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 50% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (SJK 24 games, Ilves 24) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 3 | Venue: OmaSP Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 April 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 44% | Draw 29% | Ilves 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% (Under 38%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG SJK 1.79 / Ilves 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 0.990 / def 0.914 | Ilves attack 0.969 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.889 / away 1.585 • Poisson stance: SJK (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Ilves xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SJK vs Ilves FAQs
What time does SJK vs Ilves kick off?
SJK vs Ilves kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 19 April 2024 at OmaSP Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs Ilves?
SJK 1 - 0 Ilves.
Where is SJK vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at OmaSP Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs Ilves part of?
SJK vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 3) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 44% chance of winning, Ilves a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both SJK and Ilves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will SJK vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SJK's attack at 0.99x the league average against Ilves's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.97x) against SJK's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from SJK's last 24 games and Ilves's last 24, a sample that still includes some older results.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
44%
2.29
29%
3.43
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
7.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
SJK xG
Total xG
3.20
1.40
Ilves xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.52
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
25%
4.07
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
11%
9.32
5%
22.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 5.7 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 10.3 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SJK vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are SJK and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for SJK and 1.40 for Ilves, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SJK's recent record stands at 21W 12D 21L from 54 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with L-D-W-L-D in the last five.
Ilves, meanwhile, have gone 17W 16D 21L across 54 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for SJK against 1.24 for Ilves. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, SJK have managed 13W 6D 8L from their last 27 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ilves's away record stands at 8W 10D 9L across their last 27 away games, a 1.26 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SJK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
SJK are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.44 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Current Season
Ilves
Blended
SJK (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SJK
Current Season
Ilves
Blended
❓ SJK vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are SJK and Ilves in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 21W 12D 21L in their last 54 games (1.39 PPG), while Ilves have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or Ilves away?
SJK's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.67 PPG; Ilves away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between SJK and Ilves, the earliest from April 2024. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won Ilves 4-0 SJK on 19 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
SJK
5
Draws
2
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ SJK vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and Ilves?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SJK have won 3, Ilves have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SJK and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Ilves 2-0 SJK.
Who has won more matches between SJK and Ilves?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SJK 67%, Ilves 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (SJK) and 52% (Ilves). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SJK vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SJK and Ilves matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of SJK's games and 52% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are SJK and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of SJK's matches and 52% of Ilves's.
Do SJK and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of SJK's recent matches and 70% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as SJK edge out Ilves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Ilves 1-0 at OmaSP Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.79 xG and Ilves 1.40 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ilves landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Ilves attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it SJK 44% | Draw 29% | Ilves 27%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 48%, Ilves 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.39 PPG, Ilves 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SJK win broke the near-deadlock. SJK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.59 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.