Mariehamn 0-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs KuPS encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KuPS make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
Mariehamn (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 6L across 9 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (0.78 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
KuPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 8W 2D 0L from 10 games (2.60 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS away from home this season: 5W 1D 2L from 8 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. KuPS are 1.80 PPG clear of Mariehamn in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
KuPS — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Mariehamn 24% | KuPS 41%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 41% | KuPS 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.66 xG and KuPS 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.684 / defence 1.327 | KuPS attack 1.291 / defence 1.070. League average goals — home 0.907 / away 1.171. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.684 is below the league average — the 0.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. KuPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Mariehamn games / 17 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 11% | Draw 20% | KuPS 69%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 9.09 | Draw 5.00 | KuPS 1.45. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.67 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 22% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 11% | Draw 20% | KuPS 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 42% | xG Mariehamn 0.66 / KuPS 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.684 / def 1.327 | KuPS attack 1.291 / def 1.070 | league avg home 0.907 / away 1.171 • Poisson stance: KuPS (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.66
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
2.00
KuPS xG
42%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs KuPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs KuPS kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 5 September 2021 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Mariehamn 0 - 1 KuPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs KuPS part of?
Mariehamn vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 11% chance of winning, KuPS a 69% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Mariehamn and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. KuPS (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.68x the league average against KuPS's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.66 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.29x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.33x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.7%), 1-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
11%
8.84
20%
5.07
69%
1.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.9%
Away win
0 – 3
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.66
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.67
2.00
KuPS xG
8.84
11%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
1.45
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
13%
7.43
51%
1.94
Win to Nil
2%
65.66
36%
2.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.9 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.66 expected goals for Mariehamn and 2.00 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 17 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 4W 2D 11L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 11W 3D 3L from 17 games, 2.12 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 1.30 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 0.50 PPG from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 5W 1D 2L from 8 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 0.65 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.82 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 4W 2D 11L in their last 17 games (0.82 PPG), while KuPS have gone 11W 3D 3L in their last 17 (2.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 0.50 PPG; KuPS away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, KuPS in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 16 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, KuPS have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Mariehamn) and 50% (KuPS) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Mariehamn) and 38% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 38%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 50% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Mariehamn's recent games and 38% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and KuPS tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, KuPS in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Mariehamn 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Mariehamn 0-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.66 xG and KuPS 2.00 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. KuPS landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.68 / defence 1.33 against KuPS attack 1.29 / defence 1.07, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 11% | Draw 20% | KuPS 69%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 69%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 41%, KuPS 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 65% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KuPS's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was vindicated by the result. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.