Mariehamn 1-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KuPS (35%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Mariehamn face KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
KuPS make the trip to Wiklof Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. The match kicks off on Saturday 16 May 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Mariehamn (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 games at Wiklof Holding Arena this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
KuPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
KuPS away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. KuPS are 0.80 PPG clear of Mariehamn in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (2.30 vs 1.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Mariehamn lead 2W to 4W over the last 8 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jun 2025, ended 1–0 with Mariehamn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
KuPS — key trading statistics (54 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 57% versus KuPS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 59% | KuPS 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.17 xG and KuPS 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.911 / defence 1.118 | KuPS attack 1.079 / defence 1.028. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.995. Data: 28 Mariehamn games / 29 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 33% | Draw 32% | KuPS 35%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.03 | Draw 3.12 | KuPS 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, KuPS are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Mariehamn 50% | KuPS 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Wiklof Holding Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 16 May 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 33% | Draw 32% | KuPS 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 50% | xG Mariehamn 1.17 / KuPS 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.911 / def 1.118 | KuPS attack 1.079 / def 1.028 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: KuPS (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.20
KuPS xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs KuPS kick off?
Mariehamn vs KuPS kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 16 May 2026 at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 KuPS.
Where is Mariehamn vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Wiklof Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs KuPS part of?
Mariehamn vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 33% chance of winning, KuPS a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mariehamn and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
Record (8 meetings): Mariehamn 2W | Draws 2 | KuPS 4W.
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. KuPS (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.91x the league average against KuPS's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.08x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 0-1 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
33%
2.99
32%
3.17
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.37
1.20
KuPS xG
2.99
33%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
31%
3.21
Win to Nil
10%
9.94
11%
9.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 11.3 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.20 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.07 PPG on a 15W 13D 26L record — D-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 35W 9D 10L from 54 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 1.04 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.20 PPG from 25 outings (8W 6D 11L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 12W 8D 5L from 25 away games — 1.76 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.85 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Last 54 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
KuPS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and KuPS in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 15W 13D 26L in their last 54 games (1.07 PPG), while KuPS have gone 35W 9D 10L in their last 54 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.20 PPG; KuPS away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Mariehamn or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
Mariehamn have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, KuPS in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 3-0 on 25 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Mariehamn
3
Draws
4
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 3, KuPS have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when KuPS 2-4 Mariehamn.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
KuPS see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 48%, KuPS 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Mariehamn) and 48% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 32%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 52% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Mariehamn's recent games and 48% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and KuPS tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, KuPS in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wiklof Holding Arena, Regular Season - 7, as Mariehamn and KuPS drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.17 xG and KuPS 1.20 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.91 / defence 1.12 against KuPS attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 33% | Draw 32% | KuPS 35%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 59%, KuPS 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.