Mariehamn 1-0 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Ilves fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ilves make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Sunday 29 August 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Mariehamn have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mariehamn have posted 1W 1D 6L at Wiklöf Holding Arena — 0.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ilves's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Ilves have gone 1W 2D 6L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.78 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Ilves are 0.50 PPG clear of Mariehamn in recent Veikkausliiga fixtures (1.00 vs 0.50). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading Data
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Mariehamn 25% | Ilves 44%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 44% | Ilves 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 0.92 xG and Ilves 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.670 / defence 1.446 | Ilves attack 0.649 / defence 1.520. League average goals — home 0.907 / away 1.164. Mariehamn's attack strength of 0.670 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.520 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Mariehamn games / 16 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 30% | Draw 31% | Ilves 39%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Ilves 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.02 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 40% on No. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 25% | Ilves 56% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 30% | Draw 31% | Ilves 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Mariehamn 0.92 / Ilves 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.670 / def 1.446 | Ilves attack 0.649 / def 1.520 | league avg home 0.907 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Ilves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Ilves xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Ilves kick off?
Mariehamn vs Ilves kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Mariehamn 1 - 0 Ilves.
Where is Mariehamn vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Ilves part of?
Mariehamn vs Ilves is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 30% chance of winning, Ilves a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Mariehamn and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Ilves (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Mariehamn's attack at 0.67x the league average against Ilves's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.65x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.45x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 0-1 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
30%
3.30
31%
3.27
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.02
1.09
Ilves xG
3.30
30%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
16%
6.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 14.5 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.4 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.2 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.09 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Mariehamn come into this having played 16 games, going 3W 2D 11L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (6W 2D 8L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Mariehamn's home form reads 1W 1D 6L across 8 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 0.25 points per game from 8 outings (0W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Mariehamn are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.00 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Ilves in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 3W 2D 11L in their last 16 games (0.69 PPG), while Ilves have gone 6W 2D 8L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Ilves away?
Mariehamn's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 0.50 PPG; Ilves away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 1-5 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Mariehamn
3
Draws
5
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 2, Ilves have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mariehamn 2-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Ilves?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Mariehamn see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 25%, Ilves 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Mariehamn) and 38% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 75% of games; Ilves in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 62% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Mariehamn's recent games and 38% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mariehamn and Ilves tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 38% of their recent matches, Ilves in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mariehamn defy the odds to beat Ilves 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat Ilves 1-0 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 0.92 xG and Ilves 1.09 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ilves landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.67 / defence 1.45 against Ilves attack 0.65 / defence 1.52, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 30% | Draw 31% | Ilves 39%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Mariehamn win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 44%, Ilves 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not.
Ilves's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Mariehamn winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Mariehamn (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Ilves (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.