Mariehamn 2-4 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs AC Oulu fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AC Oulu make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 2. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 September 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AC Oulu have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AC Oulu arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Mariehamn register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, AC Oulu in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 44% versus AC Oulu 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 46% | AC Oulu 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.56 xG and AC Oulu 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 1.041 / defence 1.113 | AC Oulu attack 1.354 / defence 1.064. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.450. AC Oulu have an above-average attack strength of 1.354 — the away xG of 2.19 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Mariehamn games / 44 AC Oulu games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 22% | AC Oulu 51%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | AC Oulu 1.96. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.75 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 70% | AC Oulu 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Sep 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 27% | Draw 22% | AC Oulu 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 71% | xG Mariehamn 1.56 / AC Oulu 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 1.041 / def 1.113 | AC Oulu attack 1.354 / def 1.064 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.450 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
2.19
AC Oulu xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kick off?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 28 September 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Mariehamn 2 - 4 AC Oulu.
Where is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs.
What competition is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu part of?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 27% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Mariehamn and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and AC Oulu in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. AC Oulu (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (1.04) and AC Oulu's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (1.35x) against Mariehamn's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 2.19.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
27%
3.72
22%
4.59
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.75
2.19
AC Oulu xG
3.72
27%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.43
Clean Sheet
11%
8.90
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
3%
33.11
11%
9.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.1 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Mariehamn and 2.19 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn come into this having played 50 games, going 16W 9D 25L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AC Oulu sit at 1.24 PPG from 50 outings (17W 11D 22L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Mariehamn against 1.24 for AC Oulu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mariehamn's home form reads 9W 5D 11L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.28 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Oulu have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (6W 5D 14L).
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 1.26 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 16W 9D 25L in their last 50 games (1.14 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 17W 11D 22L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or AC Oulu away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.28 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
2
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, AC Oulu have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 48%, AC Oulu 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Mariehamn) and 60% (AC Oulu). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 36% of games; AC Oulu in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play AC Oulu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 56% of AC Oulu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Mariehamn's matches and 60% of AC Oulu's.
Do Mariehamn and AC Oulu tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, AC Oulu in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Oulu cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Mariehamn 2-4 at Wiklöf Holding Arena konstgräs, Relegation Round - 2, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.56 xG and AC Oulu 2.19 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. AC Oulu outscored their 2.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 1.04 / defence 1.11 against AC Oulu attack 1.35 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 27% | Draw 22% | AC Oulu 51%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 46%, AC Oulu 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
AC Oulu's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.14 PPG, AC Oulu 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AC Oulu win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.28 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.