Mariehamn 2-1 AC Oulu – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mariehamn at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mariehamn vs AC Oulu encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
AC Oulu make the trip to Wiklöf Holding Arena to face Mariehamn in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Current Form
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Wiklöf Holding Arena this season.
AC Oulu have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
AC Oulu away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Mariehamn's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of AC Oulu's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 33% versus AC Oulu 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 48% | AC Oulu 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.32 xG and AC Oulu 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.870 / defence 0.832 | AC Oulu attack 0.944 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.455. AC Oulu bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Mariehamn's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Mariehamn games / 25 AC Oulu games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 41% | Draw 27% | AC Oulu 32%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | AC Oulu 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mariehamn are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mariehamn if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 30% | AC Oulu 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs AC Oulu | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 41% | Draw 27% | AC Oulu 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Mariehamn 1.32 / AC Oulu 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.870 / def 0.832 | AC Oulu attack 0.944 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Mariehamn (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.14
AC Oulu xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kick off?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Mariehamn 2 - 1 AC Oulu.
Where is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu part of?
Mariehamn vs AC Oulu is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 41% chance of winning, AC Oulu a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mariehamn the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Mariehamn and AC Oulu will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs AC Oulu have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and AC Oulu?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mariehamn and AC Oulu in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Mariehamn's attack rating (0.87) and AC Oulu's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — AC Oulu's attack (0.94x) against Mariehamn's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mariehamn Win
41%
2.46
27%
3.69
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
2.46
1.14
AC Oulu xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
9%
11.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.5 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and AC Oulu expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.14 for AC Oulu, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs AC Oulu?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Mariehamn come into this having played 27 games, going 9W 3D 15L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AC Oulu sit at 0.96 PPG from 27 outings (7W 5D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.11 PPG for Mariehamn against 0.96 for AC Oulu. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Mariehamn's home form reads 4W 1D 8L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, AC Oulu have taken 0.69 points per game from 13 outings (2W 3D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Mariehamn are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; AC Oulu are on 0.85 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
AC Oulu
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and AC Oulu in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 9W 3D 15L in their last 27 games (1.11 PPG), while AC Oulu have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or AC Oulu away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.00 PPG; AC Oulu away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mariehamn have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AC Oulu — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
2
Draws
4
AC Oulu
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and AC Oulu?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, AC Oulu have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and AC Oulu last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mariehamn see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
AC Oulu see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Mariehamn) and 38% (AC Oulu) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Mariehamn) and 46% (AC Oulu).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu in 31%; Mariehamn have failed to score in 62% of games; AC Oulu in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / AC Oulu away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play AC Oulu?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 38% of AC Oulu's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs AC Oulu usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Mariehamn's recent games and 46% of AC Oulu's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Mariehamn edge out AC Oulu 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mariehamn beat AC Oulu 2-1 at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.32 xG and AC Oulu 1.14 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.87 / defence 0.83 against AC Oulu attack 0.94 / defence 1.25, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 41% | Draw 27% | AC Oulu 32%, with Mariehamn to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 48%, AC Oulu 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did.
AC Oulu's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.11 PPG, AC Oulu 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mariehamn win broke the near-deadlock. Mariehamn (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.