Lahti 0-4 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lahti at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lahti face SJK.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lahti host SJK at Lahden Stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Monday 27 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lahti have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Lahti's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
SJK — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, SJK have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lahti at 1.10 PPG versus SJK's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Lahti's games and 60% of SJK's (from Lahti's last 10 home games and SJK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Lahti have won 1, SJK 2, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Jul 2023, ended Lahti 1–1 SJK — a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.8 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Lahti in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
SJK in-play and half-time data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lahti 48% versus SJK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lahti 48% | SJK 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lahti 1.30 xG and SJK 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lahti attack 0.944 / defence 0.859 | SJK attack 0.799 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.601 / away 1.209. SJK's attack rating of 0.799 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.83. Data: built from Lahti's last 29 games and SJK's last 30.
Result probabilities: Lahti 44% | Draw 36% | SJK 20%. Fair-value odds: Lahti 2.28 | Draw 2.76 | SJK 5.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lahti as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lahti offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 64% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Lahti 70% (last 10 home games) | SJK 60% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lahti vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 8 | Venue: Lahden Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 27 May 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lahti 44% | Draw 36% | SJK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Lahti 1.30 / SJK 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Lahti attack 0.944 / def 0.859 | SJK attack 0.799 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.601 / away 1.209 • Poisson stance: Lahti (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Lahti xG
Expected Goals
0.83
SJK xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lahti vs SJK FAQs
What time does Lahti vs SJK kick off?
Lahti vs SJK kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Monday 27 May 2024 at Lahden Stadion.
What was the final score in Lahti vs SJK?
Lahti 0 - 4 SJK.
Where is Lahti vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Lahden Stadion.
What competition is Lahti vs SJK part of?
Lahti vs SJK is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 8) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Lahti vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives Lahti a 44% chance of winning, SJK a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Lahti the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lahti vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Lahti and SJK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Lahti vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lahti's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, SJK's attack versus Lahti's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lahti's last 29 games and SJK's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.8%), 0-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lahti Win
44%
2.28
36%
2.76
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Lahti xG
Total xG
2.13
0.83
SJK xG
2.28
44%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
5%
18.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.4 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lahti vs SJK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lahti vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Lahti and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Lahti and 0.83 for SJK, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Lahti vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lahti come into this having played 54 games, going 12W 14D 28L for 0.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.39 PPG from 54 outings (21W 12D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-D across their last five.
SJK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Lahti — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Lahti's home form reads 7W 5D 15L across their last 27 home games, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 27 away games (8W 6D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lahti are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.26 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lahti
Blended
SJK
Current Season
Lahti (Home) vs SJK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lahti
Blended
SJK
Current Season
❓ Lahti vs SJK Form FAQs
What form are Lahti and SJK in coming into this match?
Lahti have gone 12W 14D 28L in their last 54 games (0.93 PPG), while SJK have gone 21W 12D 21L in their last 54 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lahti at home or SJK away?
SJK's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lahti at home: 0.96 PPG; SJK away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from September 2021. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 9 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 May 2024, when SJK won Lahti 0-4 SJK.
Lahti's record when hosting SJK specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lahti
3
Draws
5
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ Lahti vs SJK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lahti and SJK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lahti have won 2, SJK have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lahti and SJK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 9 October 2026: SJK 1-0 Lahti.
Who has won more matches between Lahti and SJK?
SJK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lahti are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lahti 52%, SJK 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Lahti) and 33% (SJK).
On the defensive side: Lahti have failed to score in 41% of games; SJK in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lahti home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lahti vs SJK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lahti and SJK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Lahti's recent matches and 41% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lahti and SJK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Lahti's recent games and 33% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lahti and SJK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Lahti's recent matches and 63% of SJK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SJK run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Lahti.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK beat Lahti 0-4 at Lahden Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lahti 1.30 xG and SJK 0.83 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Lahti fell 1.3 short of their projected output. SJK outscored their 0.83 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lahti attack 0.94 / defence 0.86 against SJK attack 0.80 / defence 0.86, drawn from 29/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lahti 44% | Draw 36% | SJK 20%, with Lahti to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a SJK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lahti 48%, SJK 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lahti's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SJK arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Lahti (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SJK (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.