KuPS 1-0 SJK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs SJK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
KuPS and SJK meet at Vare Areena in Veikkausliiga (matchday 5). This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters, KuPS have posted 8W 0D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
SJK's record over their last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
SJK's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. KuPS's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of SJK's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 4 H2H matches in our data, KuPS edge it 2 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2024, ended KuPS 1–0 SJK — a KuPS win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 46% versus SJK 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 46% | SJK 63%). Note also that SJK surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while KuPS recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.45 xG and SJK 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.140 / defence 0.672 | SJK attack 0.899 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.519 / away 1.581. KuPS have a tight defence (rating 0.672), which is pulling SJK's projected output down. Data: built from KuPS's last 27 games and SJK's last 27.
Result probabilities: KuPS 49% | Draw 27% | SJK 25%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.06 | Draw 3.76 | SJK 4.02. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 57% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: KuPS 40% (last 10 home games) | SJK 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs SJK | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 5 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 49% | Draw 27% | SJK 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG KuPS 1.45 / SJK 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.140 / def 0.672 | SJK attack 0.899 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.519 / away 1.581 • Poisson stance: KuPS (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.95
SJK xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs SJK FAQs
What time does KuPS vs SJK kick off?
KuPS vs SJK kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 2 May 2025 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs SJK?
KuPS 1 - 0 SJK.
Where is KuPS vs SJK being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs SJK part of?
KuPS vs SJK is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 5) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs SJK?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 49% chance of winning, SJK a 25% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs SJK?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both KuPS and SJK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will KuPS vs SJK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
KuPS's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against SJK's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. Flip it around — SJK's attack (0.90x) against KuPS's defence (0.67x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 27 games and SJK's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
49%
2.06
27%
3.76
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.40
0.95
SJK xG
2.06
49%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
38%
2.60
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
6%
17.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs SJK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs SJK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are KuPS and SJK expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for KuPS and 0.95 for SJK, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs SJK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS come into this having played 54 games, going 33W 10D 11L for 2.02 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, SJK sit at 1.52 PPG from 54 outings (23W 13D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-D across their last five.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of SJK — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
KuPS's home form reads 20W 1D 6L across their last 27 home games, a 2.26 PPG return.
Away from home, SJK have taken 1.52 points per game from their last 27 away games (11W 8D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; SJK are on 1.57 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SJK in 61%.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
SJK
Current Season
KuPS (Home) vs SJK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Blended
SJK
Current Season
❓ KuPS vs SJK Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and SJK in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 33W 10D 11L in their last 54 games (2.02 PPG), while SJK have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or SJK away?
KuPS's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.26 PPG; SJK away: 1.52 PPG.
Have KuPS or SJK been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, SJK in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was on 18 July 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against SJK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
KuPS
4
Draws
0
SJK
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs SJK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and SJK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 6, SJK have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and SJK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 July 2026: SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and SJK?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 41%, SJK 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (KuPS) and 59% (SJK).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / SJK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs SJK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and SJK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of KuPS's recent matches and 52% of SJK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KuPS and SJK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of KuPS's recent games and 59% of SJK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and SJK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of KuPS's recent matches and 67% of SJK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out SJK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat SJK 1-0 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 5, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.45 xG and SJK 0.95 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SJK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.14 / defence 0.67 against SJK attack 0.90 / defence 0.84, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 49% | Draw 27% | SJK 25%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 46%, SJK 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
SJK's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.52. The form guide was vindicated by the result. SJK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.