KuPS 2-1 Ilves – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates KuPS at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Ilves encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Väre Areena plays host to KuPS versus Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 1. Kick-off: Saturday 2 October 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
KuPS have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Väre Areena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Väre Areena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ilves (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in KuPS's favour (2.40 vs 1.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading Data
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (KuPS 36% | Ilves 32%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (KuPS 41% | Ilves 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.51 xG and Ilves 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.199 / defence 0.821 | Ilves attack 0.645 / defence 1.307. League average goals — home 0.965 / away 1.079. Ilves bring a strong defensive rating of 1.307 — this is suppressing KuPS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 KuPS games / 22 Ilves games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 60% | Draw 26% | Ilves 14%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Ilves 7.14. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Ilves's lower xG of 0.57 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: KuPS 30% | Ilves 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Oct 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 60% | Draw 26% | Ilves 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 34% | xG KuPS 1.51 / Ilves 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.199 / def 0.821 | Ilves attack 0.645 / def 1.307 | league avg home 0.965 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: KuPS (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Ilves xG
34%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Ilves kick off?
KuPS vs Ilves kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 October 2021 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Ilves?
KuPS 2 - 1 Ilves.
Where is KuPS vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Ilves part of?
KuPS vs Ilves is a Championship Round - 1 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 60% chance of winning, Ilves a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both KuPS and Ilves will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are KuPS and Ilves in?
KuPS (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
KuPS's attacking strength (1.20x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Ilves's attack (0.65x) against KuPS's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.57.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.2%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
60%
1.66
26%
3.88
14%
7.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.2%
Home win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.08
0.57
Ilves xG
1.66
60%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
7.19
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.95
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
56%
1.77
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
34%
2.93
3%
32.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 7.1 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.8 | 10.7 | 3.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.2 | 8.1 | 2.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.2 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are KuPS and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for KuPS and 0.57 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Ilves?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
KuPS come into this having played 22 games, going 15W 4D 3L for 2.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (10W 3D 9L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.73 PPG clear of Ilves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
KuPS's home form reads 7W 3D 1L across 11 games on their own ground, a 2.18 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 0.73 points per game from 11 outings (2W 2D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ilves's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
KuPS are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 0.95 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games; Ilves in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Ilves in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 15W 4D 3L in their last 22 games (2.23 PPG), while Ilves have gone 10W 3D 9L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Ilves away?
KuPS's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.18 PPG; Ilves away: 0.73 PPG.
Have KuPS or Ilves been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, Ilves in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 23 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
KuPS go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 13 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ilves — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
1
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Ilves?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Ilves have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Ilves last play each other?
They last met on 23 June 2026, when KuPS 4-3 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Ilves?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 27%, Ilves 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (KuPS) and 27% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 73% of their matches; Ilves in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Ilves?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of KuPS's recent matches and 46% of Ilves's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Ilves usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of KuPS's recent games and 27% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and Ilves tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Ilves in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Ilves 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Ilves 2-1 at Väre Areena, Championship Round - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.51 xG and Ilves 0.57 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.20 / defence 0.82 against Ilves attack 0.65 / defence 1.31, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 60% | Draw 26% | Ilves 14%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 41%, Ilves 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.
Ilves's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.