KuPS 3-1 HJK Helsinki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates KuPS at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as KuPS face HJK Helsinki.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
HJK Helsinki make the trip to Väre Areena to face KuPS in Veikkausliiga (matchday 1). The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
KuPS (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters, KuPS have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
HJK Helsinki have collected 2.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, HJK Helsinki have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.10 PPG for KuPS against 2.20 for HJK Helsinki. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading & In-Play
KuPS — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
HJK Helsinki — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 43% versus HJK Helsinki 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 43% | HJK Helsinki 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.41 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.024 / defence 0.953 | HJK Helsinki attack 1.043 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.237. Data: built from KuPS's last 22 games and HJK Helsinki's last 22. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | HJK Helsinki 30%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 2.63 | Draw 3.08 | HJK Helsinki 3.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: KuPS 20% (last 10 home games) | HJK Helsinki 90% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (KuPS 22 games, HJK Helsinki 22) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs HJK Helsinki | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 1 | Venue: Väre Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | HJK Helsinki 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG KuPS 1.41 / HJK Helsinki 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.024 / def 0.953 | HJK Helsinki attack 1.043 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: KuPS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.23
HJK Helsinki xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ KuPS vs HJK Helsinki FAQs
What time does KuPS vs HJK Helsinki kick off?
KuPS vs HJK Helsinki kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Väre Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
KuPS 3 - 1 HJK Helsinki.
Where is KuPS vs HJK Helsinki being played?
The match is being played at Väre Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs HJK Helsinki part of?
KuPS vs HJK Helsinki is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 1) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 38% chance of winning, HJK Helsinki a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both KuPS and HJK Helsinki will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will KuPS vs HJK Helsinki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates KuPS's attack at 1.02x the league average against HJK Helsinki's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — HJK Helsinki's attack (1.04x) against KuPS's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from KuPS's last 22 games and HJK Helsinki's last 22, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
38%
2.63
32%
3.08
30%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.64
1.23
HJK Helsinki xG
2.63
38%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.39
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
11%
9.00
7%
13.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.4 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ KuPS vs HJK Helsinki Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are KuPS and HJK Helsinki expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for KuPS and 1.23 for HJK Helsinki, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs HJK Helsinki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
KuPS's recent record stands at 33W 11D 10L from 54 games, a 2.04 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-W in the last five.
HJK Helsinki, meanwhile, have gone 33W 12D 9L across 54 games — 2.06 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.04 PPG for KuPS against 2.06 for HJK Helsinki. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, KuPS have managed 16W 5D 5L from their last 26 home games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
HJK Helsinki's away record stands at 14W 8D 4L across their last 26 away games, a 1.92 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
KuPS are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; HJK Helsinki are on 1.69 scored and 0.91 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; HJK Helsinki in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
HJK Helsinki
Blended
KuPS (Home) vs HJK Helsinki (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
KuPS
Blended
HJK Helsinki
Blended
❓ KuPS vs HJK Helsinki Form FAQs
What form are KuPS and HJK Helsinki in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 games (2.04 PPG), while HJK Helsinki have gone 33W 12D 9L in their last 54 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or HJK Helsinki away?
KuPS's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.04 PPG; HJK Helsinki away: 1.92 PPG.
Have KuPS or HJK Helsinki been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, HJK Helsinki in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to June 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won HJK Helsinki 0-4 KuPS on 27 Jun 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, KuPS have gone 3W 2D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against HJK Helsinki — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
4
Draws
1
HJK Helsinki
Recent Meetings
❓ KuPS vs HJK Helsinki H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and HJK Helsinki?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, KuPS have won 5, HJK Helsinki have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and HJK Helsinki last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: HJK Helsinki 2-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and HJK Helsinki?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
HJK Helsinki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 80% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 38%, HJK Helsinki 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (KuPS) and 50% (HJK Helsinki).
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; HJK Helsinki in 35%; KuPS have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / HJK Helsinki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ KuPS vs HJK Helsinki Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in KuPS and HJK Helsinki matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of KuPS's recent matches and 65% of HJK Helsinki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are KuPS and HJK Helsinki matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of KuPS's recent games and 50% of HJK Helsinki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do KuPS and HJK Helsinki matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of KuPS's recent matches and 73% of HJK Helsinki's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
KuPS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over HJK Helsinki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat HJK Helsinki 3-1 at Väre Areena, Regular Season - 1, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.41 xG and HJK Helsinki 1.23 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against HJK Helsinki attack 1.04 / defence 0.97, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 38% | Draw 32% | HJK Helsinki 30%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 43%, HJK Helsinki 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
HJK Helsinki's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — KuPS 2.04 PPG, HJK Helsinki 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the KuPS win broke the near-deadlock. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm. HJK Helsinki (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.