Ilves 2-0 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ilves at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ilves vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mariehamn make the trip to Ratinan Stadion to face Ilves in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ilves have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ilves have posted 7W 0D 2L at Ratinan Stadion — 2.33 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 9 home games (56%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Ratinan Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 22% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Ilves are significantly better at Ratinan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mariehamn's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Ilves against 1.30 for Mariehamn. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Ilves have seen both teams score in just 22% of their matches, Mariehamn in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Trading Data
Ilves goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mariehamn goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Ilves 35% | Mariehamn 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ilves 30% | Mariehamn 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.08 xG and Mariehamn 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 0.988 / defence 0.864 | Mariehamn attack 0.918 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 0.905 / away 1.129. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Ilves games / 20 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 30%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Mariehamn 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ilves are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ilves if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 22% | Mariehamn 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Ratinan Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 39% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Ilves 1.08 / Mariehamn 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 0.988 / def 0.864 | Mariehamn attack 0.918 / def 1.207 | league avg home 0.905 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Ilves (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Mariehamn xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Mariehamn kick off?
Ilves vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Ratinan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Ilves 2 - 0 Mariehamn.
Where is Ilves vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Ratinan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Mariehamn part of?
Ilves vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 39% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Ilves and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Mariehamn (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ilves's attack at 0.99x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.92x) against Ilves's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
39%
2.54
31%
3.24
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ilves xG
Total xG
1.97
0.90
Mariehamn xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
10%
9.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 13.4 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.2 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Ilves and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ilves and 0.90 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ilves's recent record stands at 9W 2D 9L from 20 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mariehamn, meanwhile, have gone 6W 2D 12L across 20 games — 1.00 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Ilves by 0.45 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Mariehamn heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ilves have managed 7W 0D 2L from 9 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Ilves are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Mariehamn's away record stands at 3W 1D 5L across 9 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ilves are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 0.80 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mariehamn in 25%.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Mariehamn
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 9W 2D 9L in their last 20 games (1.45 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 6W 2D 12L in their last 20 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Mariehamn away?
Ilves's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.33 PPG; Mariehamn away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Ilves or Mariehamn been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Mariehamn in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Ilves won 1-5 on 21 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ilves have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Ilves
3
Draws
2
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, Ilves have won 5, Mariehamn have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when Mariehamn 2-2 Ilves.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Mariehamn?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Ilves) and 33% (Mariehamn) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Ilves) and 56% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Mariehamn in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Mariehamn?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Ilves's recent matches and 33% of Mariehamn's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ilves vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Ilves's recent games and 56% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ilves and Mariehamn tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ilves cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Mariehamn.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Mariehamn 2-0 at Ratinan Stadion, Regular Season - 4, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.08 xG and Mariehamn 0.90 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mariehamn landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 0.99 / defence 0.86 against Mariehamn attack 0.92 / defence 1.21, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 39% | Draw 31% | Mariehamn 30%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 30%, Mariehamn 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 30%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Mariehamn's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.45 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Mariehamn (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.