Haka 2-0 SJK – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Haka take on SJK.

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Fixture Analysis

Haka welcome SJK to Tehtaan kenttä in Veikkausliiga (matchday 6). Kick-off is Saturday 11 May 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Haka have gone 5W 4D 1L — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Haka at home: 3W 7D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, SJK stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

SJK's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

On current form, Haka have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Haka's games and 60% of SJK's (from Haka's last 10 home games and SJK's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Haka, 1 for SJK and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Haka 1–0 SJK — a Haka win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Haka in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

SJK in-play and half-time data (last 56 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 62% versus SJK 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | SJK 48%). Note also that SJK surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Haka recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.13 xG and SJK 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.929 / defence 0.982 | SJK attack 0.894 / defence 0.791. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.362. SJK bring a tight defence (rating 0.791, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Haka's projected output down. Data: built from Haka's last 27 games and SJK's last 28.

Result probabilities: Haka 31% | Draw 36% | SJK 34%. Fair-value odds: Haka 3.27 | Draw 2.81 | SJK 2.96. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haka 70% (last 10 home games) | SJK 60% (last 10 away games).

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