Haka 1-0 Inter Turku – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter Turku at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Inter Turku encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inter Turku make the trip to Tehtaan kenttä to face Haka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 August 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Haka (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's home record at Tehtaan kenttä: 0W 2D 3L from 5 Veikkausliiga appearances (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Tehtaan kenttä this season.
Inter Turku's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Inter Turku, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Inter Turku have gone 3W 0D 3L from 6 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.67 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Inter Turku arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Haka have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Inter Turku in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Inter Turku goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (13 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 46% versus Inter Turku 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 46% | Inter Turku 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 0.81 xG and Inter Turku 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.802 / defence 1.262 | Inter Turku attack 1.075 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 0.827 / away 1.084. Inter Turku bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Haka games / 14 Inter Turku games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 21% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 53%. Fair-value odds: Haka 4.76 | Draw 3.70 | Inter Turku 1.89. Inter Turku hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inter Turku at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter Turku if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Haka 60% | Inter Turku 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Inter Turku | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Aug 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 21% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Haka 0.81 / Inter Turku 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.802 / def 1.262 | Inter Turku attack 1.075 / def 1.216 | league avg home 0.827 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Inter Turku (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Inter Turku xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Inter Turku kick off?
Haka vs Inter Turku kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 August 2021 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Inter Turku?
Haka 1 - 0 Inter Turku.
Where is Haka vs Inter Turku being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Inter Turku part of?
Haka vs Inter Turku is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Inter Turku?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 21% chance of winning, Inter Turku a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Inter Turku the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Inter Turku?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Haka and Inter Turku will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Inter Turku have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Inter Turku?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Haka and Inter Turku in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Inter Turku (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Haka's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Inter Turku's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.81. Flip it around — Inter Turku's attack (1.07x) against Haka's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.47.
These ratings are built from 13/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Turku Win
21%
4.86
27%
3.77
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Haka xG
Total xG
2.28
1.47
Inter Turku xG
4.86
21%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
23%
4.35
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
5%
21.13
24%
4.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 15.1 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Inter Turku?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Haka and Inter Turku expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Haka and 1.47 for Inter Turku, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Inter Turku?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haka's recent record stands at 2W 3D 8L from 13 games, a 0.69 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter Turku, meanwhile, have gone 7W 2D 4L across 13 games — 1.77 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Inter Turku is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Inter Turku by 1.08 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Haka heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Haka have managed 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — 0.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter Turku's away record stands at 3W 0D 2L across 5 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter Turku come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haka are averaging 0.77 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Inter Turku are on 1.69 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Inter Turku in 62%.
Last 13 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Inter Turku
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Inter Turku in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 2W 3D 8L in their last 13 games (0.69 PPG), while Inter Turku have gone 7W 2D 4L in their last 13 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Inter Turku away?
Inter Turku's away record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 0.40 PPG; Inter Turku away: 1.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 July 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter Turku won 3-0 on 26 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter Turku — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
3
Draws
3
Inter Turku
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Inter Turku?
From 10 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Inter Turku have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Inter Turku last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2025, when Haka 0-1 Inter Turku.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Inter Turku?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Inter Turku are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 60%, Inter Turku 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Haka) and 60% (Inter Turku).
On the defensive side: Haka have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Inter Turku away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Inter Turku?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Haka's games and 60% of Inter Turku's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Inter Turku usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Haka's recent games and 60% of Inter Turku's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Inter Turku tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Inter Turku in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Haka defy the odds to beat Inter Turku 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Haka beat Inter Turku 1-0 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 0.81 xG and Inter Turku 1.47 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Inter Turku landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.80 / defence 1.26 against Inter Turku attack 1.07 / defence 1.22, drawn from 13/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 21% | Draw 27% | Inter Turku 53%, with Inter Turku to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Haka win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 46%, Inter Turku 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (13 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Inter Turku's trading profile (13 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter Turku arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with Haka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Haka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line. Inter Turku (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.