Haka 2-2 Ilves – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Haka (43%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Haka face Ilves.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Ilves travel to Tehtaan kenttä to take on Haka in Veikkausliiga (Relegation Round - 1). The game is scheduled for Friday 15 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Haka — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Haka at home: 2W 8D 0L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Ilves stand at 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ilves away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Haka have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Haka hold a clear advantage across the 4 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Ilves and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.2 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2023, ended Haka 2–1 Ilves — a Haka win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Haka and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.2 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Haka in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 79% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Ilves in-play tendencies (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Haka 61% versus Ilves 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Haka 57% | Ilves 51%). Note also that Ilves surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Haka recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 39% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.38 xG and Ilves 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 1.087 / defence 0.969 | Ilves attack 0.895 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.278. Data: built from Haka's last 44 games and Ilves's last 44.
Result probabilities: Haka 43% | Draw 28% | Ilves 30%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.34 | Draw 3.63 | Ilves 3.36. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Haka are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Haka 90% (last 10 home games) | Ilves 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Ilves | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Relegation Round - 1 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Friday 15 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 43% | Draw 28% | Ilves 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Haka 1.38 / Ilves 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 1.087 / def 0.969 | Ilves attack 0.895 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.278 • Poisson stance: Haka (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ilves xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Haka vs Ilves FAQs
What time does Haka vs Ilves kick off?
Haka vs Ilves kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Friday 15 September 2023 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Ilves?
Haka 2 - 2 Ilves.
Where is Haka vs Ilves being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Ilves part of?
Haka vs Ilves is a Veikkausliiga fixture (Relegation Round - 1) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Ilves?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 43% chance of winning, Ilves a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Ilves?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Haka and Ilves will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Haka vs Ilves have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Haka's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Ilves's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. The same calculation in reverse, Ilves's attack versus Haka's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Haka's last 44 games and Ilves's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
43%
2.34
28%
3.63
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Haka xG
Total xG
2.49
1.11
Ilves xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.2 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Haka vs Ilves Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Ilves?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Haka and Ilves expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Haka and 1.11 for Ilves, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Ilves?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Haka come into this having played 49 games, going 18W 15D 16L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-W.
On the other side, Ilves sit at 1.10 PPG from 49 outings (13W 15D 21L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Haka on 1.41 PPG, Ilves on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Haka's home form reads 9W 11D 4L across their last 24 home games, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Ilves have taken 1.12 points per game from their last 24 away games (6W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Haka are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Ilves are on 1.29 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Ilves
Blended
Haka (Home) vs Ilves (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Haka
Blended
Ilves
Blended
❓ Haka vs Ilves Form FAQs
What form are Haka and Ilves in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 18W 15D 16L in their last 49 games (1.41 PPG), while Ilves have gone 13W 15D 21L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Ilves away?
Haka's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 1.58 PPG; Ilves away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from April 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 28 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Ilves have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won Ilves 5-0 Haka.
Haka's record when hosting Ilves specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
4
Ilves
Recent Meetings
❓ Haka vs Ilves H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Ilves?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Haka have won 4, Ilves have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Ilves last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 June 2025: Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 71% of those situations.
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 79%, Ilves 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Haka) and 46% (Ilves).
On the defensive side: Ilves in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Ilves away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Haka vs Ilves Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Haka and Ilves matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 79% of Haka's games and 50% of Ilves's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Haka and Ilves matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Haka's recent games and 46% of Ilves's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Haka and Ilves matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Haka's recent matches and 67% of Ilves's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Haka and Ilves share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tehtaan kenttä, Relegation Round - 1, as Haka and Ilves drew 2-2 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.38 xG and Ilves 1.11 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ilves outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 1.09 / defence 0.97 against Ilves attack 0.90 / defence 0.96, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 43% | Draw 28% | Ilves 30%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 57%, Ilves 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Ilves's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.41 PPG, Ilves 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.