FF Jaro 1-3 VPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FF Jaro at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this FF Jaro vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 19 as FF Jaro welcome VPS to Project Liv Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, FF Jaro have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FF Jaro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Project Liv Arena, FF Jaro have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — FF Jaro are significantly better at Project Liv Arena than their overall form suggests.
VPS — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for VPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VPS's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FF Jaro 1.10 PPG, VPS 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for FF Jaro, 0 for VPS and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
FF Jaro in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
VPS in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FF Jaro 60% and VPS 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FF Jaro 62% | VPS 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FF Jaro 1.40 xG and VPS 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FF Jaro attack 0.989 / defence 1.064 | VPS attack 0.883 / defence 0.949. League average goals — home 1.489 / away 1.093. Data: 40 FF Jaro games / 40 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FF Jaro 45% | Draw 27% | VPS 27%. Fair-value odds: FF Jaro 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | VPS 3.70. FF Jaro hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FF Jaro at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FF Jaro offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: FF Jaro 70% | VPS 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FF Jaro vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Project Liv Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FF Jaro 45% | Draw 27% | VPS 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG FF Jaro 1.40 / VPS 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: FF Jaro attack 0.989 / def 1.064 | VPS attack 0.883 / def 0.949 | league avg home 1.489 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: FF Jaro (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
FF Jaro xG
Expected Goals
1.03
VPS xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FF Jaro vs VPS kick off?
FF Jaro vs VPS kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 8 August 2026 at Project Liv Arena.
What was the final score in FF Jaro vs VPS?
FF Jaro 1 - 3 VPS.
Where is FF Jaro vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Project Liv Arena.
What competition is FF Jaro vs VPS part of?
FF Jaro vs VPS is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win FF Jaro vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives FF Jaro a 45% chance of winning, VPS a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FF Jaro the favourite.
Will both teams score in FF Jaro vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both FF Jaro and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will FF Jaro vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and VPS?
Record (4 meetings): FF Jaro 1W | Draws 3 | VPS 0W.
What form are FF Jaro and VPS in?
FF Jaro (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. VPS (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FF Jaro's attack rating (0.99) and VPS's defence rating (0.95), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, VPS's attack versus FF Jaro's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.7%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FF Jaro Win
45%
2.21
27%
3.66
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
FF Jaro xG
Total xG
2.42
1.03
VPS xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.06
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
7%
14.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 12.7 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FF Jaro vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are FF Jaro and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for FF Jaro and 1.03 for VPS, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for FF Jaro vs VPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, FF Jaro have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 13W 10D 22L record — L-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for FF Jaro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VPS's form line: 15W 13D 17L from 45 games, 1.29 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. The sample for VPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FF Jaro on 1.09 PPG, VPS on 1.29. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FF Jaro have posted 1.14 PPG from 22 outings (6W 7D 9L).
On the road, VPS have gone 5W 6D 11L from 22 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FF Jaro are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; VPS are on 1.36 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FF Jaro have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; VPS in 62%.
Last 45 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FF Jaro
Blended
VPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FF Jaro and VPS in coming into this match?
FF Jaro have gone 13W 10D 22L in their last 45 games (1.09 PPG), while VPS have gone 15W 13D 17L in their last 45 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FF Jaro at home or VPS away?
FF Jaro's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FF Jaro at home: 1.14 PPG; VPS away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
FF Jaro's record when hosting VPS specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
FF Jaro
3
Draws
1
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FF Jaro and VPS?
From 5 meetings on record, FF Jaro have won 1, VPS have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FF Jaro and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when FF Jaro 1-3 VPS.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FF Jaro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
VPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FF Jaro at 68%, VPS at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for FF Jaro and 59% for VPS. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FF Jaro have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FF Jaro home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FF Jaro play VPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of FF Jaro's games and 68% of VPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FF Jaro vs VPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of FF Jaro's matches and 59% of VPS's.
Do FF Jaro and VPS tend to score early?
FF Jaro have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, VPS in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
VPS cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FF Jaro.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat FF Jaro 1-3 at Project Liv Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FF Jaro 1.40 xG and VPS 1.03 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. VPS outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FF Jaro attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against VPS attack 0.88 / defence 0.95, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FF Jaro 45% | Draw 27% | VPS 27%, with FF Jaro to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual VPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FF Jaro 62%, VPS 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FF Jaro's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
VPS's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FF Jaro 1.09 PPG, VPS 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the VPS win broke the near-deadlock. FF Jaro (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. VPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.