EIF 1-2 VPS – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates VPS at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this EIF vs VPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN plays host to EIF versus VPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 2 June 2024 at 16:30 UTC.
Form
VPS's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
VPS's away record: 9W 0D 1L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (2.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 8 away clean sheets from 10 games (80%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects EIF 0.89 xG and VPS 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: EIF attack 0.651 / defence 1.147 | VPS attack 1.208 / defence 0.864. League average goals — home 1.573 / away 1.275. EIF's attack strength of 0.651 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VPS have an above-average attack strength of 1.208 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 EIF games / 31 VPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: EIF 16% | Draw 29% | VPS 55%. Fair-value odds: EIF 6.25 | Draw 3.45 | VPS 1.82. The model has a clear lean to VPS (55%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates VPS as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: EIF vs VPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: EIF 16% | Draw 29% | VPS 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG EIF 0.89 / VPS 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: EIF attack 0.651 / def 1.147 | VPS attack 1.208 / def 0.864 | league avg home 1.573 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: VPS (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
EIF xG
Expected Goals
1.77
VPS xG
51%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does EIF vs VPS kick off?
EIF vs VPS kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN.
What was the final score in EIF vs VPS?
EIF 1 - 2 VPS.
Where is EIF vs VPS being played?
The match is being played at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN.
What competition is EIF vs VPS part of?
EIF vs VPS is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win EIF vs VPS?
Our statistical model gives EIF a 16% chance of winning, VPS a 55% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making VPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in EIF vs VPS?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both EIF and VPS will score (BTTS).
Will EIF vs VPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between EIF and VPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are EIF and VPS in?
VPS (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-W-W. VPS away split: 2.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.70 / GA 0.20 | CS 8.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from EIF's attack rating (0.65) and VPS's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VPS's attack (1.21x) against EIF's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 8/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.0%), 0-2 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
VPS Win
16%
6.33
29%
3.48
55%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
EIF xG
Total xG
2.65
1.77
VPS xG
6.33
16%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
1.80
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
3%
36.99
23%
4.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for EIF vs VPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are EIF and VPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for EIF and 1.77 for VPS, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for EIF vs VPS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
EIF
Pre-Season
VPS
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 July 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
EIF
0
Draws
1
VPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between EIF and VPS?
From 2 meetings on record, EIF have won 1, VPS have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did EIF and VPS last play each other?
They last met on 6 July 2024, when VPS 2-3 EIF.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = EIF home games / VPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as VPS edge out EIF 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VPS beat EIF 1-2 at Ekenäs Sparbank Arena TN, Regular Season - 9, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting EIF 0.89 xG and VPS 1.77 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of EIF attack 0.65 / defence 1.15 against VPS attack 1.21 / defence 0.86, drawn from 8/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it EIF 16% | Draw 29% | VPS 55%, with VPS to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.