AC Oulu 0-3 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 39%, yet in-form KuPS provide a compelling counter-argument — this AC Oulu vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and KuPS meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Raatin stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — AC Oulu are significantly better at Raatin stadion than their overall form suggests.
KuPS (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 8W 2D 0L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
KuPS — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; they lead at the break 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 44% versus KuPS 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 41% | KuPS 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.30 xG and KuPS 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 1.170 / defence 0.887 | KuPS attack 1.011 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.314. Data: 29 AC Oulu games / 29 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 39% | Draw 27% | KuPS 34%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | KuPS 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AC Oulu at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form KuPS (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: AC Oulu 50% | KuPS 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 May 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 39% | Draw 27% | KuPS 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG AC Oulu 1.30 / KuPS 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 1.170 / def 0.887 | KuPS attack 1.011 / def 0.808 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.314 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.18
KuPS xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs KuPS kick off?
AC Oulu vs KuPS kicked off at 16:00 on Tuesday 17 May 2022 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
AC Oulu 0 - 3 KuPS.
Where is AC Oulu vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs KuPS part of?
AC Oulu vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 39% chance of winning, KuPS a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both AC Oulu and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. KuPS (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 1.17x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.01x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
39%
2.54
27%
3.69
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.48
1.18
KuPS xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.26
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.8 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.18 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 0.96 PPG on a 7W 5D 15L record — D-L-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 17W 7D 3L from 27 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-W-D-D-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 1.19 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.31 PPG from 13 outings (5W 2D 6L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 9W 2D 2L from 13 away games — 2.23 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.70 scored and 0.74 conceded.
Defensively: KuPS in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 7W 5D 15L in their last 27 games (0.96 PPG), while KuPS have gone 17W 7D 3L in their last 27 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.31 PPG; KuPS away: 2.23 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, KuPS in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 17 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, KuPS have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 46%, KuPS 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (AC Oulu) and 46% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 38%; AC Oulu have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 54% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of AC Oulu's recent games and 46% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and KuPS tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, KuPS in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant KuPS run riot with a 0-3 hammering of AC Oulu.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat AC Oulu 0-3 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.30 xG and KuPS 1.18 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. AC Oulu fell 1.3 short of their projected output. KuPS outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 1.17 / defence 0.89 against KuPS attack 1.01 / defence 0.81, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 39% | Draw 27% | KuPS 34%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual KuPS win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 41%, KuPS 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
KuPS's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.15 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. AC Oulu (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.