AC Oulu 1-0 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours KuPS (37%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as AC Oulu face KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and KuPS meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga (matchday 13). This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 June 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Current Form
AC Oulu's record over their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AC Oulu are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
KuPS (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
KuPS's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 3D 1L (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 1.30 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, KuPS have the stronger record — 3 wins to AC Oulu's 0, with 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Jun 2024, ended AC Oulu 1–4 KuPS — a KuPS win.
KuPS have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
KuPS — key trading statistics (last 54 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 61% versus KuPS 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 65% | KuPS 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: AC Oulu surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while KuPS have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.15 xG and KuPS 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.884 / defence 0.978 | KuPS attack 1.016 / defence 0.843. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.296. Data: built from AC Oulu's last 34 games and KuPS's last 35.
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 31% | Draw 32% | KuPS 37%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 3.26 | Draw 3.11 | KuPS 2.69. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 37% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — low conviction — though recent form (AC Oulu's last 10 home games and KuPS's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AC Oulu 70% (last 10 home games) | KuPS 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 13 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 June 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 31% | Draw 32% | KuPS 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG AC Oulu 1.15 / KuPS 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.884 / def 0.978 | KuPS attack 1.016 / def 0.843 | league avg home 1.543 / away 1.296 • Poisson stance: KuPS (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.29
KuPS xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AC Oulu vs KuPS FAQs
What time does AC Oulu vs KuPS kick off?
AC Oulu vs KuPS kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 28 June 2024 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
AC Oulu 1 - 0 KuPS.
Where is AC Oulu vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs KuPS part of?
AC Oulu vs KuPS is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 13) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 31% chance of winning, KuPS a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AC Oulu and KuPS will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AC Oulu vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.88x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.02x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from AC Oulu's last 34 games and KuPS's last 35 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
31%
3.26
32%
3.11
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.3%
Away win
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.44
1.29
KuPS xG
3.26
31%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
8%
11.82
12%
8.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.3 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.9 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.4 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.9 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AC Oulu vs KuPS Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.29 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 54 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 24W 10D 20L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
KuPS's form line: 33W 11D 10L from 54 games, 2.04 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.52 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.58 PPG from their last 26 home games (12W 5D 9L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 15W 6D 5L from their last 26 away games — 1.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.56 scored and 0.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: KuPS in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
AC Oulu (Home) vs KuPS (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AC Oulu
Current Season
KuPS
Blended
❓ AC Oulu vs KuPS Form FAQs
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 24W 10D 20L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while KuPS have gone 33W 11D 10L in their last 54 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.58 PPG; KuPS away: 1.96 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, KuPS in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to May 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
AC Oulu have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won KuPS 4-1 AC Oulu on 8 Jun 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
1
Draws
5
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ AC Oulu vs KuPS H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AC Oulu have won 4, KuPS have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and KuPS last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 54%, KuPS 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (AC Oulu) and 42% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 46%; AC Oulu have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AC Oulu vs KuPS Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AC Oulu and KuPS matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 46% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AC Oulu and KuPS matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of AC Oulu's recent games and 42% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and KuPS matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 62% of KuPS's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as AC Oulu defy the odds to beat KuPS 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat KuPS 1-0 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.15 xG and KuPS 1.29 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. KuPS landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against KuPS attack 1.02 / defence 0.84, drawn from 34/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 31% | Draw 32% | KuPS 37%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual AC Oulu win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 65%, KuPS 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
KuPS's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.52. Form was overturned, with AC Oulu winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. AC Oulu (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line. KuPS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.