AC Oulu 3-1 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AC Oulu at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Oulu vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 16 as AC Oulu welcome Kooteepee to Raatin stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 July 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AC Oulu — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: D W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu at Raatin stadion this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Raatin stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kooteepee stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Veikkausliiga this season, Kooteepee have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 0.57 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 7 away games (43%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.71 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AC Oulu carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: AC Oulu have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 4 past contests while Kooteepee have managed just 0 wins.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2023, ended 2–0 with AC Oulu winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AC Oulu and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
AC Oulu in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Kooteepee in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time; they fail to score in 53% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 67% versus Kooteepee 27%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 73% | Kooteepee 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.36 xG and Kooteepee 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 1.125 / defence 1.255 | Kooteepee attack 0.690 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 1.016. Data: 38 AC Oulu games / 15 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 46% | Draw 32% | Kooteepee 22%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Kooteepee 4.55. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AC Oulu as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AC Oulu offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.24 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 50% | Kooteepee 29% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jul 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 46% | Draw 32% | Kooteepee 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG AC Oulu 1.36 / Kooteepee 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 1.125 / def 1.255 | Kooteepee attack 0.690 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.201 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Kooteepee xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Kooteepee kick off?
AC Oulu vs Kooteepee kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 July 2023 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
AC Oulu 3 - 1 Kooteepee.
Where is AC Oulu vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Kooteepee part of?
AC Oulu vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 46% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both AC Oulu and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Kooteepee?
Record (4 meetings): AC Oulu 3W | Draws 1 | Kooteepee 0W.
What form are AC Oulu and Kooteepee in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Kooteepee (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 1.12x the league average against Kooteepee's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus AC Oulu's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
46%
2.17
32%
3.17
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.24
0.88
Kooteepee xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
26%
3.91
Win to Nil
19%
5.22
6%
17.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for AC Oulu and 0.88 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AC Oulu come into this having played 15 games, going 7W 3D 5L for 1.60 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-L. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 1.13 PPG from 15 outings (4W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-L-W-D-D across their last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AC Oulu carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AC Oulu's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.13 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kooteepee's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AC Oulu are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 0.80 scored and 1.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; Kooteepee in 27%.
Defensively: Kooteepee in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 7W 3D 5L in their last 15 games (1.60 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 4W 5D 6L in their last 15 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Kooteepee away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.43 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.71 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or Kooteepee been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 7% of their recent games, Kooteepee in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AC Oulu's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
AC Oulu
1
Draws
1
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Kooteepee?
From 9 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 7, Kooteepee have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when AC Oulu 0-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and Kooteepee?
AC Oulu have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Kooteepee see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 57%, Kooteepee 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (AC Oulu) and 29% (Kooteepee).
On the defensive side: Kooteepee in 43%; AC Oulu have failed to score in 29% of games; Kooteepee in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Kooteepee?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 29% of Kooteepee's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of AC Oulu's recent games and 29% of Kooteepee's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Kooteepee tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Oulu cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kooteepee.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu beat Kooteepee 3-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.36 xG and Kooteepee 0.88 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. AC Oulu beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 1.12 / defence 1.25 against Kooteepee attack 0.69 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 46% | Draw 32% | Kooteepee 22%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 73%, Kooteepee 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Kooteepee's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Oulu arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. AC Oulu (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Kooteepee (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.