Wolves 1-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolves at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolves vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Fulham travel to Molineux Stadium to take on Wolves. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 May 2026, 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Wolves have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolves have posted 3W 3D 4L at Molineux Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fulham stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Fulham's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolves 0.90 PPG, Fulham 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wolves, 3 for Fulham and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Fulham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Wolves trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Fulham trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 51% versus Fulham 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 57% | Fulham 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.19 xG and Fulham 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 0.793 / defence 1.091 | Fulham attack 0.757 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.225. Wolves's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.19 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 74 Wolves games / 74 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolves 38% | Draw 32% | Fulham 30%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 2.63 | Draw 3.12 | Fulham 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wolves as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolves offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.20 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Wolves 40% | Fulham 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 38% | Draw 32% | Fulham 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Wolves 1.19 / Fulham 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 0.793 / def 1.091 | Fulham attack 0.757 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Wolves (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Fulham xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolves vs Fulham kick off?
Wolves vs Fulham kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Molineux Stadium.
What was the final score in Wolves vs Fulham?
Wolves 1 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Wolves vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Fulham part of?
Wolves vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 38% chance of winning, Fulham a 30% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Wolves and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Wolves vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Fulham?
Record (7 meetings): Wolves 2W | Draws 2 | Fulham 3W.
What form are Wolves and Fulham in?
Wolves (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Fulham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wolves's attack rating (0.79) and Fulham's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Wolves's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
38%
2.61
32%
3.12
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Wolves xG
Total xG
2.20
1.01
Fulham xG
2.61
38%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.3 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Wolves and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Wolves and 1.01 for Fulham, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolves come into this having played 74 games, going 15W 15D 44L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.38 PPG from 74 outings (29W 15D 30L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Fulham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Wolves — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Wolves's home form reads 9W 7D 21L across 37 games on their own ground, a 0.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.19 points per game from 37 outings (12W 8D 17L).
The Goals Picture
Wolves are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.32 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fulham in 62%.
Last 74 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Current Season
Fulham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolves and Fulham in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 15W 15D 44L in their last 74 games (0.81 PPG), while Fulham have gone 29W 15D 30L in their last 74 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Fulham away?
Fulham's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 0.92 PPG; Fulham away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolves and Fulham runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Wolves won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolves's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Wolves
3
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Wolves have won 2, Fulham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Wolves and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Wolves 1-1 Fulham.
Who has won more matches between Wolves and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fulham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolves 54%, Fulham 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Wolves) and 51% (Fulham).
On the defensive side: Wolves have failed to score in 27% of games; Fulham in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolves play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Wolves's games and 60% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolves vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Wolves's recent games and 51% of Fulham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Wolves and Fulham tend to score early?
Wolves have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Fulham in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Wolves and Fulham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolves and Fulham finished level at 1-1 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.19 xG and Fulham 1.01 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.79 / defence 1.09 against Fulham attack 0.76 / defence 1.01, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolves 38% | Draw 32% | Fulham 30%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 57%, Fulham 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolves's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fulham arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.81. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.