Wolves 0-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Wolves at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Wolves vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Wolves and Bournemouth meet at Molineux Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Wolves's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolves's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Molineux Stadium this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bournemouth (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Wolves's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Bournemouth's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Wolves 0W, Bournemouth 0W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 0.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Wolves half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at home): BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Bournemouth half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolves 37% versus Bournemouth 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolves 40% | Bournemouth 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolves 1.71 xG and Bournemouth 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolves attack 0.849 / defence 0.958 | Bournemouth attack 0.685 / defence 1.409. League average goals — home 1.427 / away 1.156. Bournemouth bring a strong defensive rating of 1.409 — this is suppressing Wolves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 Wolves games / 22 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolves 59% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 16%. Fair-value odds: Wolves 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Bournemouth 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Wolves (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Wolves as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Wolves 20% | Bournemouth 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolves vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Molineux Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolves 59% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 44% | xG Wolves 1.71 / Bournemouth 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Wolves attack 0.849 / def 0.958 | Bournemouth attack 0.685 / def 1.409 | league avg home 1.427 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Wolves (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Wolves xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Bournemouth xG
44%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolves vs Bournemouth kick off?
Wolves vs Bournemouth kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Molineux Stadium.
What was the final score in Wolves vs Bournemouth?
Wolves 0 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is Wolves vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at Molineux Stadium.
What competition is Wolves vs Bournemouth part of?
Wolves vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Wolves vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives Wolves a 59% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Wolves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolves vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Wolves and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will Wolves vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Bournemouth?
Record (1 meetings): Wolves 0W | Draws 1 | Bournemouth 0W.
What form are Wolves and Bournemouth in?
Wolves (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Bournemouth (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Wolves's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Bournemouth's defensive record (1.41x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Bournemouth's attack (0.69x) against Wolves's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolves Win
59%
1.68
25%
4.03
16%
6.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Wolves xG
Total xG
2.47
0.76
Bournemouth xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
6.36
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
28%
3.59
3%
35.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolves vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Wolves and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Wolves and 0.76 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolves vs Bournemouth?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Wolves's recent record stands at 21W 11D 28L from 60 games, a 1.23 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Wolves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 24W 16D 20L across 60 games — 1.47 PPG, with L-L-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Wolves against 1.47 for Bournemouth. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Wolves have managed 11W 5D 14L from 30 games — 1.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 10W 7D 13L across 30 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Wolves are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.33 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Bournemouth in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolves
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolves and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
Wolves have gone 21W 11D 28L in their last 60 games (1.23 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 24W 16D 20L in their last 60 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolves at home or Bournemouth away?
Wolves's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolves at home: 1.27 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Wolves or Bournemouth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Wolves have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Bournemouth in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Bournemouth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Wolves have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bournemouth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Wolves
1
Draws
5
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolves and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, Wolves have won 2, Bournemouth have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Wolves and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Wolves 0-2 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Wolves and Bournemouth?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Wolves) and 37% (Bournemouth) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Wolves) and 47% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: Bournemouth in 33%; Wolves have failed to score in 47% of games; Bournemouth in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolves home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolves play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Wolves's recent matches and 37% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Wolves vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Wolves's recent games and 47% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Bournemouth defy the odds to beat Wolves 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Wolves 0-1 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.71 xG and Bournemouth 0.76 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wolves fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.85 / defence 0.96 against Bournemouth attack 0.69 / defence 1.41, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Wolves 59% | Draw 25% | Bournemouth 16%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Bournemouth win, an outcome the model had rated at just 16% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 40%, Bournemouth 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolves's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bournemouth's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolves 1.23 PPG, Bournemouth 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.