West Ham 1-1 Bournemouth – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates West Ham at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this West Ham vs Bournemouth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Bournemouth travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Thursday 1 February 2024, 19:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, West Ham stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
West Ham's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at London Stadium this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, Bournemouth have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bournemouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bournemouth away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.10 PPG (West Ham) versus 1.90 (Bournemouth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for West Ham, 0 for Bournemouth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
West Ham in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Bournemouth in-play tendencies (58 games, 28 at away): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 52% versus Bournemouth 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 50% | Bournemouth 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.84 xG and Bournemouth 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.944 / defence 0.798 | Bournemouth attack 1.134 / defence 1.134. League average goals — home 1.716 / away 1.362. West Ham's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 West Ham games / 58 Bournemouth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 51% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 25%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Bournemouth 4.00. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.23) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Ham are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Ham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 50% | Bournemouth 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Bournemouth | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 1 Feb 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 51% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG West Ham 1.84 / Bournemouth 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.944 / def 0.798 | Bournemouth attack 1.134 / def 1.134 | league avg home 1.716 / away 1.362 • Poisson stance: West Ham (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Bournemouth xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Bournemouth kick off?
West Ham vs Bournemouth kicked off at 19:30 on Thursday 1 February 2024 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
West Ham 1 - 1 Bournemouth.
Where is West Ham vs Bournemouth being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Bournemouth part of?
West Ham vs Bournemouth is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 51% chance of winning, Bournemouth a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both West Ham and Bournemouth will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Bournemouth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Bournemouth?
Record (3 meetings): West Ham 2W | Draws 1 | Bournemouth 0W.
What form are West Ham and Bournemouth in?
West Ham (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Bournemouth (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.94) and Bournemouth's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bournemouth's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
51%
1.96
24%
4.19
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.07
1.23
Bournemouth xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.51
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
16%
6.28
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
4%
25.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are West Ham and Bournemouth expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for West Ham and 1.23 for Bournemouth, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Bournemouth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
West Ham's recent record stands at 21W 12D 25L from 58 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bournemouth, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 30L across 58 games — 1.10 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Bournemouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.29 PPG, Bournemouth on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 13W 7D 8L from 28 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bournemouth's away record stands at 9W 3D 16L across 28 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Bournemouth are on 1.12 scored and 1.90 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Bournemouth
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Bournemouth in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 21W 12D 25L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Bournemouth have gone 18W 10D 30L in their last 58 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Bournemouth away?
West Ham's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.64 PPG; Bournemouth away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 6 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Apr 2023, when West Ham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Bournemouth specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
West Ham
6
Draws
0
Bournemouth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Bournemouth?
From 8 meetings on record, West Ham have won 2, Bournemouth have won 0, and 6 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Bournemouth last play each other?
They last met on 21 February 2026, when West Ham 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Bournemouth?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 50%, Bournemouth 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (West Ham) and 61% (Bournemouth).
On the defensive side: West Ham keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Bournemouth in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Bournemouth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Bournemouth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of West Ham's recent matches and 46% of Bournemouth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Ham vs Bournemouth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of West Ham's recent games and 61% of Bournemouth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
West Ham and Bournemouth share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at London Stadium, Regular Season - 22, as West Ham and Bournemouth drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.84 xG and Bournemouth 1.23 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. West Ham fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.94 / defence 0.80 against Bournemouth attack 1.13 / defence 1.13, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 51% | Draw 24% | Bournemouth 25%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 50%, Bournemouth 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Bournemouth's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.29 PPG, Bournemouth 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bournemouth (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.