West Ham 2-1 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Aston Villa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Aston Villa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
London Stadium plays host to West Ham versus Aston Villa in Premier League, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Sunday 13 March 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
West Ham's home record at London Stadium: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Aston Villa's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: L L W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Aston Villa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Aston Villa have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: West Ham 1W, Aston Villa 0W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2021, ended 4–1 with West Ham winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at home): BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Aston Villa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 14 at away): BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 59% versus Aston Villa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 52% | Aston Villa 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.10 xG and Aston Villa 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.037 / defence 1.105 | Aston Villa attack 0.817 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.358. Data: 28 West Ham games / 27 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 33% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 39%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 3.03 | Draw 3.57 | Aston Villa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aston Villa are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Aston Villa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.33 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 60% | Aston Villa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 33% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG West Ham 1.10 / Aston Villa 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.037 / def 1.105 | Aston Villa attack 0.817 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Aston Villa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Aston Villa xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Aston Villa kick off?
West Ham vs Aston Villa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Aston Villa?
West Ham 2 - 1 Aston Villa.
Where is West Ham vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Aston Villa part of?
West Ham vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 33% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 39% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Aston Villa the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both West Ham and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Aston Villa?
Record (1 meetings): West Ham 1W | Draws 0 | Aston Villa 0W.
What form are West Ham and Aston Villa in?
West Ham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Aston Villa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.04x the league average against Aston Villa's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aston Villa's attack (0.82x) against West Ham's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aston Villa Win
33%
3.05
28%
3.56
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
West Ham xG
Total xG
2.33
1.23
Aston Villa xG
3.05
33%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
33%
3.00
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.0 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are West Ham and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for West Ham and 1.23 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
West Ham's recent record stands at 12W 6D 9L from 27 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aston Villa, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 13L across 27 games — 1.33 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Aston Villa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.56 PPG for West Ham against 1.33 for Aston Villa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, West Ham have managed 7W 3D 4L from 14 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Aston Villa's away record stands at 6W 0D 8L across 14 trips, a 1.29 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
West Ham are averaging 1.56 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.48 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Aston Villa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 12W 6D 9L in their last 27 games (1.56 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 11W 3D 13L in their last 27 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Aston Villa away?
West Ham's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.71 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.29 PPG.
Have West Ham or Aston Villa been keeping clean sheets recently?
West Ham have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Aston Villa in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Aston Villa go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: West Ham won 1-4 on 31 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aston Villa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Ham
3
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Aston Villa?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 3, Aston Villa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Aston Villa 2-0 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 71%, Aston Villa 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (West Ham) and 50% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Aston Villa in 36%; Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of West Ham's recent matches and 36% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is West Ham vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of West Ham's recent games and 50% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Aston Villa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Aston Villa 2-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.10 xG and Aston Villa 1.23 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Aston Villa attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 33% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 39%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual West Ham win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 52%, Aston Villa 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (27 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Aston Villa's trading profile (27 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.56 PPG, Aston Villa 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.