Nottingham Forest 2-2 Brentford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 46%, yet in-form Brentford provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nottingham Forest vs Brentford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest and Brentford meet at The City Ground in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nottingham Forest have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The City Ground, Nottingham Forest have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Nottingham Forest are significantly better at The City Ground than their overall form suggests.
Brentford (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brentford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brentford's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Brentford are the stronger side — 0.60 PPG clear of the hosts (1.10 vs 0.50). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Nottingham Forest half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Brentford half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 41% versus Brentford 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 43% | Brentford 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.70 xG and Brentford 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.745 / defence 1.250 | Brentford attack 0.936 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.636 / away 1.077. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.745 is below the league average — the 1.70 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Brentford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Nottingham Forest's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 Nottingham Forest games / 51 Brentford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 46% | Draw 26% | Brentford 27%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | Brentford 3.70. Nottingham Forest hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.26) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nottingham Forest are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Brentford (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nottingham Forest if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Nottingham Forest 50% | Brentford 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Brentford | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 46% | Draw 26% | Brentford 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.70 / Brentford 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.745 / def 1.250 | Brentford attack 0.936 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.636 / away 1.077 • Poisson stance: Nottingham Forest (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Brentford xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Brentford kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 November 2022 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Brentford?
Nottingham Forest 2 - 2 Brentford.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Brentford being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Brentford part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Brentford is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Brentford?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 46% chance of winning, Brentford a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nottingham Forest the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Brentford?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Brentford will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Brentford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Brentford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Brentford in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 D-L-D-W-L. Brentford (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.74) and Brentford's defence rating (1.39), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Brentford's attack (0.94x) against Nottingham Forest's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 13/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
46%
2.16
26%
3.78
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.96
1.26
Brentford xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.61
5%
20.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.1 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Brentford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Brentford expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.26 for Brentford, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Brentford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 24W 12D 15L record — D-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brentford's form line: 16W 13D 22L from 51 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Brentford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Nottingham Forest are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Brentford.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 1.96 PPG from 25 outings (15W 4D 6L).
On the road, Brentford have gone 6W 7D 12L from 25 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Brentford are on 1.31 scored and 1.53 conceded.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Brentford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Brentford in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 24W 12D 15L in their last 51 games (1.65 PPG), while Brentford have gone 16W 13D 22L in their last 51 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Brentford away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.96 PPG; Brentford away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Brentford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Brentford in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Nottingham Forest have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nottingham Forest have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Brentford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
3
Brentford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Brentford?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 3, Brentford have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Brentford last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Brentford 0-2 Nottingham Forest.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 44%, Brentford 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Nottingham Forest and 68% for Brentford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Brentford in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Brentford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Brentford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 64% of Brentford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Brentford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 68% of Brentford's.
Nottingham Forest and Brentford share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest and Brentford finished level at 2-2 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.70 xG and Brentford 1.26 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against Brentford attack 0.94 / defence 1.39, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 46% | Draw 26% | Brentford 27%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 43%, Brentford 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Brentford's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.20. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.