Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Nottingham Forest take on Aston Villa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Aston Villa travel to City Ground to take on Nottingham Forest. The game is scheduled for Sunday 12 April 2026, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L D D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at City Ground, Nottingham Forest have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aston Villa stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Aston Villa away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nottingham Forest 1.10 PPG, Aston Villa 1.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Nottingham Forest, 4 for Aston Villa and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 3.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Aston Villa winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Nottingham Forest trading profile (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Aston Villa trading profile (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Aston Villa 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Aston Villa 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.01 xG and Aston Villa 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.673 / defence 0.874 | Aston Villa attack 0.979 / defence 1.084. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.253. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.673 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Nottingham Forest games / 69 Aston Villa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 35% | Aston Villa 34%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 3.23 | Draw 2.86 | Aston Villa 2.94. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 30% | Aston Villa 70%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Apr 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 35% | Aston Villa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 44% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.01 / Aston Villa 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.673 / def 0.874 | Aston Villa attack 0.979 / def 1.084 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Aston Villa xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 April 2026 at City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 1 Aston Villa.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 31% chance of winning, Aston Villa a 34% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa?
Record (7 meetings): Nottingham Forest 2W | Draws 1 | Aston Villa 4W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-D-W. Aston Villa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Aston Villa's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Aston Villa's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
35%
2.89
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.09
1.07
Aston Villa xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.89
35%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
12%
8.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.07 for Aston Villa, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nottingham Forest come into this having played 69 games, going 27W 16D 26L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-W.
On the other side, Aston Villa sit at 1.74 PPG from 69 outings (35W 15D 19L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.41 PPG, Aston Villa on 1.74. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Nottingham Forest's home form reads 12W 10D 12L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.35 PPG return.
Away from home, Aston Villa have taken 1.41 points per game from 34 outings (14W 6D 14L).
The Goals Picture
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Aston Villa are on 1.45 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Current Season
Aston Villa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 27W 16D 26L in their last 69 games (1.41 PPG), while Aston Villa have gone 35W 15D 19L in their last 69 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Aston Villa away?
Aston Villa's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.35 PPG; Aston Villa away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Aston Villa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Aston Villa in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Aston Villa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
4
Aston Villa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 2, Aston Villa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Nottingham Forest 1-1 Aston Villa.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa?
Aston Villa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Aston Villa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 35%, Aston Villa 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nottingham Forest) and 59% (Aston Villa).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 41% of games; Aston Villa in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Aston Villa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Aston Villa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 53% of Aston Villa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 59% of Aston Villa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Aston Villa in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa finished level at 1-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.01 xG and Aston Villa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.67 / defence 0.87 against Aston Villa attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 35% | Aston Villa 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Aston Villa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Aston Villa's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.41 PPG, Aston Villa 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.