Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Arsenal (49%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Nottingham Forest face Arsenal.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 22 as Nottingham Forest welcome Arsenal to City Ground. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Nottingham Forest — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nottingham Forest's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 games at City Ground this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Premier League games this season, Arsenal have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Arsenal — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Arsenal have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 7 encounters against Nottingham Forest's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2025, ended 0–3 with Arsenal winning.
It is worth noting that Arsenal have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Arsenal in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus Arsenal 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 52% | Arsenal 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.06 xG and Arsenal 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.884 / defence 1.184 | Arsenal attack 1.151 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.230. Arsenal's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 59 Nottingham Forest games / 59 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 22% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 49%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Arsenal 2.04. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Arsenal are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 40% | Arsenal 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 22% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.06 / Arsenal 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.884 / def 1.184 | Arsenal attack 1.151 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Arsenal xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Nottingham Forest 0 - 0 Arsenal.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 22% chance of winning, Arsenal a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal?
Record (7 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 1 | Arsenal 5W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Arsenal in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-W. Arsenal (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Nottingham Forest's attack rating (0.88) and Arsenal's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
22%
4.65
29%
3.41
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.74
1.68
Arsenal xG
4.65
22%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
19%
5.35
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
24.88
17%
5.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.68 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 59 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 25W 11D 23L record — L-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Nottingham Forest is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal's form line: 35W 18D 6L from 59 games, 2.08 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Nottingham Forest.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 1.45 PPG from 29 outings (12W 6D 11L).
On the road, Arsenal have gone 15W 10D 4L from 29 away games — 1.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 1.85 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 25W 11D 23L in their last 59 games (1.46 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 35W 18D 6L in their last 59 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.45 PPG; Arsenal away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Arsenal in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2022, when Arsenal won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting Arsenal specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
2
Draws
5
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Arsenal have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Nottingham Forest 0-0 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Arsenal are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 38%, Arsenal 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Nottingham Forest) and 38% (Arsenal).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Arsenal in 34%; Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 34% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 55% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 38% of Arsenal's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Arsenal tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Arsenal in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nottingham Forest's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at City Ground, Regular Season - 22, as Nottingham Forest and Arsenal drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.06 xG and Arsenal 1.68 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Arsenal landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.88 / defence 1.18 against Arsenal attack 1.15 / defence 0.80, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 22% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 49%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 52%, Arsenal 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arsenal's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.46. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Arsenal (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.