Newcastle 2-3 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Everton at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Everton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Newcastle host Everton at St. James' Park in Premier League, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Newcastle — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Newcastle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at St. James' Park, Newcastle have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Newcastle are significantly better at St. James' Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Everton stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Everton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Everton's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Newcastle 1.30 PPG, Everton 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Newcastle have won 4, Everton 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 4–1 with Newcastle winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Newcastle trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Everton trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 55% versus Everton 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | Everton 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.18 xG and Everton 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.190 / defence 1.193 | Everton attack 0.906 / defence 0.707. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 1.274. Everton's defence strength of 0.707 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 65 Newcastle games / 65 Everton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 29% | Draw 32% | Everton 38%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 3.45 | Draw 3.12 | Everton 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Everton as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Everton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Newcastle 70% | Everton 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 29% | Draw 32% | Everton 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 55% | xG Newcastle 1.18 / Everton 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.190 / def 1.193 | Everton attack 0.906 / def 0.707 | league avg home 1.407 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Everton (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Everton xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Everton kick off?
Newcastle vs Everton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Newcastle 2 - 3 Everton.
Where is Newcastle vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Everton part of?
Newcastle vs Everton is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 29% chance of winning, Everton a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Everton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Newcastle and Everton will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
Record (9 meetings): Newcastle 4W | Draws 2 | Everton 3W.
What form are Newcastle and Everton in?
Newcastle (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Everton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Newcastle's attacking strength (1.19x league average) is weighed against Everton's defensive record (0.71x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.18. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus Newcastle's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Everton Win
29%
3.41
32%
3.10
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.56
1.38
Everton xG
3.41
29%
Home win
3.10
32%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
12%
8.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.6 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.6 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.38 for Everton, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 65 outings, Newcastle have picked up 1.57 PPG on a 30W 12D 23L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Newcastle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Everton's form line: 21W 22D 22L from 65 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Everton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newcastle on 1.57 PPG, Everton on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Newcastle have posted 1.91 PPG from 32 outings (19W 4D 9L).
On the road, Everton have gone 12W 9D 11L from 32 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Newcastle are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 1.09 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Everton in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 30W 12D 23L in their last 65 games (1.57 PPG), while Everton have gone 21W 22D 22L in their last 65 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Everton away?
Newcastle's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.91 PPG; Everton away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Everton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Everton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Apr 2023, when Newcastle won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Newcastle's record when hosting Everton specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Newcastle
2
Draws
4
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Everton?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 4, Everton have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Everton last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Newcastle 2-3 Everton.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Everton see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 53%, Everton 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 66% (Newcastle) and 25% (Everton).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Everton in 34%; Everton in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Everton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Newcastle's recent matches and 38% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Newcastle vs Everton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 66% of Newcastle's recent games and 25% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newcastle and Everton tend to score early?
Newcastle have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Everton in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Everton edge out Newcastle 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat Newcastle 2-3 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.18 xG and Everton 1.38 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Everton outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.19 / defence 1.19 against Everton attack 0.91 / defence 0.71, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 29% | Draw 32% | Everton 38%, with Everton to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, Everton 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Everton's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.57 PPG, Everton 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Everton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.